Monday, January 9, 2017

Early Mock Rd 2

Round 2 2017 mock draft
(commentary will be in [ ] below each pick and manager note)

1. Bolt- A.J. Green - WR

Green played 10 games this season before suffering a season ending injury. Green was on his way to a great fantasy season and was averaging 10 targets a game. There's no signs that point to Green not being fully recovered by the start of the season. If all goes as planned, Green will be a borderline top 10 fantasy performer  and a solid pick at #13.
[I like this pick a lot.  With a relatively young QB and no change of coaching staff/philosophy coming AJ is a solid WR 1]

2. DC - Rob Gronkowski - Since this is pretend, I'm going to pretend that he is back 100% healthy, which makes him a money pick who can never seem to be taken high enough to match his production. And I hate picking Patriots.
[I am not buying this pick.  No way DC picks a Patriot this high! And from a serious stand point the injuries are taking their toll on Gronk and his fantasy value.  With the new back thing being reported as a Disc issue he may have his highlights, but I doubt he'll ever play a 16 game slate again in his career so he won't be on any of my teams because I will not pay what it would take to own him]

3. Ryan - Jordy Nelson WR Packers.  An absolute fantasy stud every year he has been healthy.  When healthy, he is getting you 1200+ yards and 10+ TDs.  He is Aarons go to guy, and while his long down field catches diminished in 2016, he still showed that he was a beast in the redzone.  8 of his TDs came from goal to go situations.
[not the downfield threat that he was in past years Jordy still showed he was Arod's go to guy in the red zone.  Jordy is a legit WR 1 in the most potent passing offense in the league and is a solid pick here in round 2]

4. Wayne – Todd Gurley RB Rams – He had more rushing attempts and was more involved in the passing game in his 2ndyear.  He had about 320 touches for the year but a lower yds per touch and touchdowns.  If he can return to his previous years yds per touch he could have 1800 yds and 10-12 touchdowns.  I see the new coach giving him the le’veon treatment and just feed him the ball.  He is way too talented to have another year like 2016 even with less than QB play.  Plus the O line will be taken care of in the off season.

[This is a high upside value pick here.  The Rams have no real threats on offense besides Gurley so the volume will be there.  Gurley not only dealt with a weak line as Wayne pointed out, but was hindered by weak QB play.  I think Gurley could rebound big like Melvin Gordon did this past year.  Things change quickly in a years time and no one is taking goal line touches away from Gurley.  He's still a low end RB1 is my book and worst case high end RB2.]

5. Chris "High Rollaz" – Lamar Miller RB Texans – He's the best RB available looking to put up better numbers in year 2.
[The Texans brought Miller in to give him the work load that he wanted in Miami.  You are currently seeing this in the playoffs.  Miller will get more touchdowns and fantasy points next season because Brock Osweiler will be better in his second full year as a starter.  It would not take too much of an upswing in Brock's play to vault Miller into a high first round pick closer where he was chosen in 2016.]

6. Mark H - Demarco Murray - Murray was better early than late this year, but still looked good overall.  The titans run the ball as much as any team so even with the emergence of Henry. Murray still holds 2nd round value easily.
[Early on Murray had many of us wondering to ourselves why we stopped believing in him.  He proved to fantasy owners he is a legit high end RB1 most of this season.  My only worry here is the emergence of D.Henry who has a huge yards per carry and is a beast near the stripe.  Murray will be good again next year, but could be the 1a to Henry's 1b costing him some touchdowns and lowering his point total from this year?  If you look at his looks down the stretch it may give you a glipse into his 2017 value which is more late 2nd round]

7. Wes/Show - D. Adams WR Green Bay.  This guy was flat money down the stretch ranking as a top five WR over the second half of the season.  Despite some drops Adams still loaded up on targets and had multiple scores and looked explosive doing it.  As Jordy Nelson's downfield game declines Adams role only grows larger.  I considered Dez here, but Dez does not have Rodgers chucking him the rock.      
     [Great pick! Show]

8. JR takes Mike Thomas - Saints WR.  With great size and hands Thomas was a threat to score from anywhere on the field especially in the Red Zone.  I have no fear pulling the trigger in the 2nd round.  At this rate he may be reaching the OBJ level come next year.  In this pass heavy attack Thomas has Drew Brees' trust and mine!

[JR usually does pretty good with these upside picks.  Thomas won't sneak up on anyone next year and will draw that number one corner more often than not.  It will be interesting to see how he deals with the extra attention.  He certainly has the talent and a pass heavy offense to boost his value.]

9. Mark B takes Latavius Murray and his 12 TD's this year.  Behind a massive line and Derek Carr back next year this is a good 2nd round value at RB.  [I like his value much more in this standard setting.  With multiple RB's in the mix in Oakland it really limits his ceiling.]

10. Tinner - I select Amari Cooper, WR  Raiders. When healthy he is a "premier " talent at the position. With Derek Carr in his 3rd season in the NFL, this duo is poised to put up "Huge" numbers in the future. The one thing about Amari is he just needs to stay healthy.

[My ownership of Cooper was very heavy this past year.  Amare left me with many more bad games than good.  Disappearing in games, drops and the lack of red zone looks will make me think long and hard about taking him this high next year.  Crabtree is the red zone WR for this team and when they are close they smash it in with their big RBs and dominant Oline.  Cooper has the raw talent to be the next Julio Jones, but he's got some maturing to do to get there.]

11. PC- At this stage it's either a risk or a reach. So I will go with risk. Isaiah Crowell plays on a terrible team which is risky. But he is about the only featured back left. A darn good one too.
[This is not a bad pick at all PC.  Crowell would be a fantasy commodity on a better squad.  He is a big back that can break away and also finish the tough runs.  Any consistency at all at the QB position would make Crowell much more relevant.  I wouldn't take him this early...but he wouldn't get out of round 3 in a standard with RBs flying off the board.]

12. Chris Porter - Aaron Rodgers led the league in TD's this year.  If you are going to go QB early you can't argue with Rodgers to finish off the 2nd round.
 [Nothing to add here.  At this point it's a strategy pick.]

This is the end of round 2 of our 2017 Mock Draft.  I think we will stop things here and begin again post NFL draft where rookies will change the look of the draft so we can go a little further into the draft.  I liked the notes on each pick...well done!  Until then...  
Wes "theShow"

Friday, January 6, 2017

Early NFL Mock Rd 1

Breaking down our first Mock draft of 2017 we started by excluding rookies not knowing yet where those players will be starting their NFL careers.  There are no wrong picks here so the breakdown is merely for entertainment purposes. 
Bolt started the draft by selecting Ezekiel Elliot number one overall.  Hard to argue with taking Zeke here due to mainly his consistency.  The offense revolves around Zeke.  Dak is not a polished downfield passer and that is not going to change much in 2017.  Elliot runs behind a huge line...gets volume and is rarely vultured at the stripe.  With Zeke you get consistency and in the first round you can't ask for more than that. 
DC somehow avoided picking Lev Bell even though he is a big Steeler fan.  I like his David Johnson pick here knowing now that his injury in the last game was simply a meniscus injury and did not involve any ACL or PCL tears.  David Johnson statistically is the best back in the league.  This guy jumps off the screen when watching the Cards play.  Whether it's his burst out of the backfield or his route running ability DJ is a straight up monster.  
Ryan took Leveon Bell 3rd.  The top three picks are set in stone right now as far as I am concerned and should be going into 2017.  Give me pick three and I'll take what's left and pick sooner coming back in a snake draft next year.   Bell can do it all and win you weeks and that is what you want out of this 3 down do it all back.  He stayed healthy this year which is big for his value going forward. 
Wayne took Jordan Howard at #4 thinking a bit outside of the box.  Howard was a real draft steal this past year and those of you who took him and waited for his chance looked like geniuses.  Howard runs hard and looks good at the goal line.  He can run in any weather with his powerful style and should be the bears go to guy next year.  I worry about trusting John Fox. That is the only real worry here.  That and the bears QB situation could change things for me.  You saw in LA what a bad offense can do to a solid fantasy RB looking to improve on a great rookie campaign.  I like the thinking here, but it does come with some risk.  Sometimes you have to take risks to win.
The first WR comes off the board here at pick 5 as Chris chose the big freak Julio Jones.   Julio is a dominant player and if he is on the field he is a threat to score on any play.  That and having a rejuvenated Matty Ice at QB Jones is about as safe as you can get at the WR position.  Jones only downside is he does miss games from time to time.  He does play hurt though so it's not a huge knock on his value. 
At #6 Mark Haskamp takes WR Antonio Brown. Antonio Brown is virtually unstoppable with his speed and route running skills.  He caught two more TD's (12) than he did last year on 40 less targets.  There's no slowing down this elite WR and I have no problem with him going mid round 1 even in a standard league.
At pick #7 I took Devonte Freeman and I mentioned his ferocious running style.  Every time I got to watch AFL this year this guy was just ripping through arm tackles and making moves to get him in the end zone.  Some people don't like the Tevin Coleman factor, but that doesn't bother me at all.  Coleman is going to take catches away from Freeman but he will never take that RB 1 job from him or the goal line work and in a standard league that's enough for me to take Freeman and sleep like a baby at the 7th pick. 
Pick 8 had Mark Burdette grabbing Shady McCoy.  What a year for McCoy who battled some injuries here and there to have a great season.  In a run first offense with limited QB play McCoy looked like a young man ripping off long TD runs in several games and rewarding those who took him early to late second/third round last season.  The new coach and OC will go along way to determine where I rank him in 2017.   
At #9 good ole' JR took Jay Ajayi.  I think many of us either drafted this guy or had him setting on our benches only to drop him before his run as a fantasy RB1.  Out of the gate Ajayi showed me little to think he could be a viable fantasy runner, but as he began to understand the zone blocking schemes of Adam Gase he began to run down hill and bash opponents...especially defenses that did not show gap discipline.  I am not sure this guy is elite, but I can buy this upside pick by JR which is what you are looking for at this point in the first round.  

The #10 pick - Johnny T  - Not a whole lot I can add to what Tinner wrote about Adams.  I really liked his write up and justification for Evans leaping into our first round.  Last year we saw Allen Robinson going around this spot and we saw what a let down he had which was due in large part to the quality of QB play this year in Jags land. I think this will be a popular pick next year with Evans much less likely to disappoint with a QB and team on the rise.  Again nice write up John.  That was exactly what I was looking for.
Pick #11 went to PC who grabbed Odell Beckham Jr.  OBJ set an NFL record for the most catches in his first three years in the NFL.  (he is actually tied with Jarvis Landry for that record, oddly enough)  Beckham may drive you crazy watching his sometimes non-existent stat lines, but with OBJ it only takes one quick slant and a missed tackle and his fantasy day, and yours, is made.  Possibly the most explosive player in the league I see this as a solid pick here.
Pick #12 - Rounding out our first round of our 2017 mock is Chris Porter and his what I would call safe selection of Melvin Gordon RB San Diego/possibly LA Chargers.  Gordon went from no TDs in 2015 to 12 total TDs in 13 games played in 2016. 
This pick is interesting to me...I think it could go either way.  I worry about his durability and lack of huge rushing yardage.  I also worry about many of his TD's coming from goal line opportunities.  He should be the only show in town next year so the 12 TDs should be something he can match, but i would like to see more durability and more games played before I call him a first round talent.  Chris referenced Woodhead in his write up.  I wouldn't worry about him at all.  He's a smaller back who is not built to be in a feature roll plus his durability is in question. 
Not sure there are any real winners or losers in this first round.  With an experienced array of drafters there are no picks that I really question.  The top 3 are set in stone right now mix them up however you want.  In the later part of the draft I do like the Evans pick at 10 and I like Wayne's Howard pick at four and you can't argue with Antonio Brown at 6.  Now we move to Round 2 of our 2017 Fantasy Football email draft.  Stay tuned for more coverage.
Wes "theShow"