Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Week 5 - Hoyer, Pryor & Let Them Be Giants

Well here it is the eve of the Thursday night fans and NFL network execs have to be thinking that outside of the Buffalo and Cleveland markets that the rating for this weeks match up are going to be dismal.  The match ups have not been bad this year but viewers and fantasy owners alike have taken a blood bath watching poorly executed games probably due to the limited time to game plan.  This week may not look like the juiciest but I for one think this may be the first helping of fantasy goodness we have seen on Thursday night outside of a couple 49er bright spots last week.  I think the Browns key players could do some real damage in this game.  Someone forgot to tell Browns QB Brian Hoyer that the team was suppose to tank some of these game or all of them to go after what is believed to be a very good 2014 NFL draft class.  Hoyer is going to throw the ball often this week and for the rest of the season.  TE Jordan Cameron is becoming the Jimmy Graham of the AFC and Josh Gordon if he can stay away from the weed for long enough is going to be a major down field threat going forward.  The Bills will struggle in this game with Stevie Johnson banged up and possibly facing CB Joe Haden (ask AJ Green how good Haden is) and both Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller both Questionable are in real danger of not playing.  Need a QB for a bye week plug in?  Take a chance on Hoyer and dare I say it start your Browns!  The Browns and the home crowd should be pumped up for this one and that's not a good thing for QB EJ Manuel and his banged up Bills. 

This has been one of the more strange fantasy football seasons that I have ever been a part of.  The death of the consistent running backs and the unpredictability of this season has made fantasy consistency a white rabbit.  Going into week 5 here are some of my thoughts on what may be in store for owners. 

Is it just me or does the waiver wire suck this year?  Do you feel like you are throwing darts while blind folded?  I have been hesitant to make any claims and lose priority status in my leagues of late because of the sparse amount of waiver wire studs.  I figure I'll let others make their claims until there is that one big injury I can take advantage of down the road.  A good example of an obvious claim that many would make is the add of Rashad Jennings, RB Raiders.  His back up M.Reece and  starter RunDmc are both questionable this week and most likely will not play so Jennings will end up getting the start.  Before you click that little plus symbol next to Jenning's name consider last year when MJD went down and he was inserted into the starting lineup. Whether the match up was good or not so good Jennings laid and egg for fantasy owners on multiple occasions.  What does it say about him that the Jags, as bad as they are, made no effort to keep him on their team? 

A few wire adds I do like are Nate Washington WR Titans and Kenny Britt WR Titans (for now).  I like these adds for different reasons.  Nate Washington is like that dependable Kenmore washer your mom has had for 20 years and it just keeps on working.  Old man Nate can still ball even without a ton of explosiveness at his disposal.  The sure handed veteran has begun to flourish as Britt has fallen out of favor with the current Titan admin. Washington should be a healthy source of fantasy points and retain WR3/4 potential for the rest of the season.  Britt on the other hand is a handy add because I believe he will be dealt to an NFC team or team out of Titans division shortly.  Kenny has not been happy for sometime now and I believe it is not only because of the lack of targets, but it is due to the fact that he is in a contract year and the Titans are costing him money not involving him and on top of that they have no intention of resigning him so he feels they are taking money out of his pocket and he is right.  Let's hope for Kenny and for us that he is dealt to a passing team (maybe Detroit) and we'll come off looking really good that we had him stashed on our roster.  If you have short rosters and the byes are killing you at least keep Britt on your watch list. 

I don't have time to highlight all the games this week but I do have some thoughts on some of the most interesting games.  I cannot wait to see the Denver vs Dallas game as the passes will be flying and a lot of fantasy points will be scored by both teams.  Start your Broncos and Cowboys boys and girls and hold on tight!  I would not recommend either DST here though Denver's has been more than serviceable this season.

Giants vs Eagles (or as I like to call it Eli's last stand)
Start Eli Manning. Why?  Because if you cannot use Eli Manning at home vs Eagles then you may as well cut him.  Start RB David Wilson and WR Hakeem Nicks both of whom have been dreadful in recent weeks.  I believe both players are excellent buy low candidates as the Giants made a quiet commitment to Wilson this week by waiving RB Da'rel Scott meaning Wilson will be involved so again if you cannot run him out there at least in your flex this week he may as well not be on your roster.  Nicks has underachieved this season even though it's a big contract year for him.  Randle does not seem close to taking Nick's position at that point so you have to believe that Nicks wants to get his money and he's not going to do that unless he balls out the rest of the way.  I am starting Nicks in every league that I own him this week.  On the Eagles side of the ball Michael Vick and Lesean McCoy having crazy fantasy seasons so far.  Even when Vick plays poorly he puts up the fantasy points because of the running ability.  McCoy looks like Barry Sanders light right now and may be the most valuable RB outside of Adrian Peterson(Yes, despite the points I still like AP).  Problem with the Eagles is teams are wising up and doubling Desean Jackson.  The Eagles scare no one with opposite side WRs Riley Cooper and Jason Avant and Vick has not used Brent Celek enough to draw any safety attention.  As much as Nicks is a buy low I think Jackson could be a sell high.  I realize it would be hard to deal him after the monster games he has put up so far, but you are seeing the stats correct themselves now and I fear for Jackson owners that this is only the beginning.  It's not like you can throw the smaller Jackson jump balls like you can an AJ Green or Julio Jones.  I don't hate Djax, but you cannot expect WR1 numbers going forward so why not test the market?

Carolina at Arizona Breakdown
Can't wait to see the battle between Patrick Peterson and Steve Smith in this one.  How cool would be it be have one of those guys mic'd up all game?  It may be a rated R clip, but it would be old school smack talk you can believe that.  I like Carolina in this game even though the Cards do play pretty well at home.  Carolina with an extra week to prepare and a rested defense featuring one of the more underrated front 7's will hit Palmer plenty in this one opening up plenty of opportunities for Cam and company to do their thing on offense. Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams  had a nice game going into the bye and you can expect another one here including his first TD of the season.  Cam Newton will have a big game running and passing to Smith and Lafell who may be overlooked in this game as the safeties slant to Smiths side.  Olsen should find room in the middle though the Cards LB's are nothing to sneeze at now that Daryl Washington is back from his suspension.  On the Cards side of the ball we can safely say at home Larry Fitzgerald will get his but we can't be sure about anyone else in the Cardinals offense.  I will be watching the workload breakdown between Mendenhall and Ellington.  Ellington has shown glimpses of dynamic ability. 

Bad Team - Good Start:  Dare I say start Raiders QB Terrell Pryor if you need him?  I think you can get a safe start out of Pryor vs a terrible SD secondary and you can also expect more rushing yards than normal with the Raider RB corp decimated by injuries.  What is this world coming to when we are starting Brian Hoyer and Pryor this week? 

Worst of the wost - Blaine Gabbert is averaging under 3 total fantasy points per game in his last few starts going back to last season. Ya know it's bad when we are calling for now second stringer Chad Henne to give us some hope for WR Cecil Shorts and the back from suspension WR Justin Blackmon who was great with Henne under center towards the end of last season.  Blackmon was actually rated in the top 15 of fantasy wide outs during that 5-6 game span.  By the way before you bail on that Rams fantasy bandwagon they play the Jags this week so keep your Rams in, but make it a one night stand because the Rams are what they are on offense. They are not creative, they are conservative to a fault, they cannot run the ball and they are not using their new weapons.  On top of that Sam Breaking Badford has looked lost in the Brian Schottenheimer offense. Ride 'em this week then jump off that bandwagon before the wheels fall off.

Is it me or is there a set of games out there this week that have low scoring fantasy desert written all over them.  Titans vs Chiefs, two really nice defenses and conservative offenses.  Indy and Seattle - two teams content to ram the ball down your throat and eat clock.  Houston vs Frisco - two defenses loaded with dynamic players and two QB's who have had their bad games this year.  Miami and Baltimore - two mediocre QB's facing ticked off defenses coming off rough losses.  Sure one of these will end up being a barn burner because that is the way this season has gone...but sure as that happens another game on the schedule will give us the 16-13 finish.  Could be another week having several teams putting up ugly fantasy numbers.

Not To Worry -
This week I think you will see WR James Jones do his thing in Green Bay...just when you forget about that dude he throws up some monster numbers.  The aforementioned H.Nicks should show up this week.  Eddie Lacy RB Packers will be back in his starting role and smashing and bashing his way to respectable numbers.  Seahawks WR Sidney Rice is still getting that knee right, but something tells me to play him this week at Indy.  TE Jared Cook went off for STL week one and he'll come rampaging back this week. 

Deal Him - Mike Wallace WR Dolphins.  Check his schedule and the DB's he will be facing over the next 5-6 weeks and tell me it's a bad move if you can get fair market value. 

Target Him -
Tony Romo QB Cowboys is sitting around No.18 in QB points right now in most leagues which is below what Tony usually gives his owners.  If you are one of those guys who waited to take Tony to reap the rewards he gives you when compared to his ADP(average draft position) never fear the points are coming so if you need a QB trade for Romo.  All the weapons are healthy and the schedule is looking like the dessert table down the local buffet. 

Know When to Hold 'Em -
Doug Martin RB Bucs - Yes I know the Bucs are terrible right now because of the QB play.  Thing is where else are you going to find a guy that gets this many touches at the RB position?  He is bound to improve and you could do worse.  Hold on and just hope Glennon can improve along the way and open up some room for Dmart.  If you dealt him right now it would be hard to get fair market value. Sit tight and reap the coming rewards.  

Good Luck this weekend, unless you are playing me.
Wes "theShow"

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