Friday, November 4, 2011

Place Your Bets Week Nine

Wes has to work his 9-5 this week, so no radio broadcast today. Might be a good change of pace as the last two weeks have been rough for me. Sinking me from my high peek of 72% down to around only a pathetic 50%. Law of averages says I'm due for a bounce back week. Last week we saw that those averages can come into effect with just about every bad team (except my Redskins) coming to work and covering and/or winning.

This week has a lot of marquee match-ups and some very challenging picks. The NFL preaches parody and that was the first week we have seen it this season. I do not think it will rear its head two weeks in a row. Here are my picks:

GAME OF THE WEEK:

New Orleans vs Tampa Bay +8

This is one of two spreads (the other is my next pick), that jumped off the page at me. The Bucs are continuing to get the snub this year and the Saints appear to still be getting lots of love off of their SB win 2 years ago. We have not seen this as much in 2011, but it is here this week. Tampa is coming off of a bye and has a divisional road game. This is the perfect time for a team on the cusp to face the divisional bully in their backyard. Couple that with a HUGE 8 point spread and I'm loving the Bucs this week certainly to keep it within a touchdown, if not win the game straight up. Some further trends I love, Tampa is 8-1 against the spread (ATS) as a road underdog, the Saints 0-6 ATS at home vs divisional opponent. Jump on the well-rested Bucs.

ATLANTA @ Indy Colts +7

Indy needs a bye week, the Falcons are coming off of one. Atlanta cannot drop this game if they want to stay on the contender list in the NFC. Playing the winless Colts off a bye is one you must win or else you are a fraud. That said, I believe Atlanta will fall short of the playoffs, but not at this point! They will crush the Colts, easily winning by the 7 points, and more likely double digits. Grab the Falcons, give the points.

Kansas City vs. Miami +4

This is another one that's hard to believe. Miami will trick a lot of people into taking them this week despite the low spread. KC is one of the toughest buildings to play in, and the Chiefs are rolling right now. It could be a trap game for them except they will be looking at the film from last week where the Fins almost "trapped" the Giants and will hopefully see what made the Miami squad successful. Matt Moore and Reggie Bush are the answers to that trap. They had a great first half, helped out by key blunders by the Giants. KC was also very opportunistic last week on MNF, but you don't win 4 straight on luck. Take the Chiefs and the friendly spread.

Tennessee vs Cincinnati -3

I wanted to pick some of the less popular matches this week as those are often places where you can make up big points because many people float past them and give them low points because they don't know much about the teams, which is a good idea, or the alternative is, do some research! Trends don't favor either team, I just think the Bengals are better until CJ gets it going. A one dimensional team with an old QB has 7-9 written all over it. I see the young and hungry and winning Bengals mauling the Titans in this one.

Green Bay @ San Diego +5.5

Good teams win off of a bye. You have heard me say that, and as the season drags on it becomes more and more true. Green Bay is the only undefeated team. Neither squad will likely have much of a running game, I'll take Aaron Rodgers in a shootout over any other QB starting this week. Take the Pack

Final Game: Pittsburgh vs Baltimore +3

After the week one drubbing the Steelers took at Baltimore it is hard to believe how far we have come to have them as the favorites even at home. But we have to remember, they had 7 turnovers. I think I can safely say that won't happen again. Baltimore will snap out of their slump eventually, and might have done it in the second half vs AZ, or AZ might simply be a bad team who has given up 3 or 4 similar leads this season in the second half. Pittsburgh at home in a grudge match, is hard to pass up. Baltimore has been average of late. Gotta take the home team who is also the better looking squad right now. Steelers -3

Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ gobeyondthebox or email me at the same handle @gmail.

The blogtalk radio show should be back next week!

PC

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