Friday, November 25, 2011

Place Your Bets week 12

Hope everyone had a happy Thanksgiving with their loved ones! If you are ahead in your games from Thursday, you can take some risks on the weekend, or if you are behind you will need some advice! Here is my advice coming off a 3-2 week from my segment of the radio show last week.

Game of the week: New England over Philly even

This pick is "off" in most pick'em leagues meaning that oddsmaker's took it off the board because of uncertainties regarding the game. The most notable uncertainty is Mike Vick. But there are other injury issues as well, mostly on the Eagles side of the ball. Regardless of any of that, Philly at full strength vs. NE at full strength, I am taking NE. So with the various injuries to the Eagles, it is a lock that the Patriots will win this match-up. Even with the game at Philly. Take the Pats.

Atlanta vs Minnesota +9.5

It is rare for me to take this big of a dog against a team that I don't feel is elite like Atlanta. However, once again injuries play a big factor here for Minnesota. Adrian Peterson looks to be out, or if he plays certainly he will be limited. All signs point to him being out. He is the only effective offensive weapon the Viks have. Toby Gerhart has done a nice job in similar situations in the past and running a few trick plays with Percy Harvin will work ok for the first half. In reality they won't be running much in the second half anyway due to the scoreboard. That is because of the second key injury which is Antoine Winfield who is the Vikings best DB who is now on IR. Atlanta still has Roddy White and Julio Jones at WR and Mike Turner and Matt Ryan at RB and QB. This quartet will be too much for the depleted Minnesota D to handle. Atlanta easily outscores Minnesota by double digits, so take the Falcons and give the 9.5.

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City +10.5

This time of year it is difficult to predict when bad teams play good teams. Its easy to pick the winner, but the spread is much more difficult. This is one of those games. Pittsburgh has been normal on the road. Kansas City has been good at home. Kansas City looked good early on vs New England last week, but then terrible as the game progressed. I would not be surprised if KC comes out strong again this week, especially at home. They are still in the mix for their division even as bad as they are. However, Pittsburgh cannot afford to lose this one either or risk dropping out of the race for their division and possibly even endanger their wild card hopes. So the Steelers will win, but will they cover this double digit number? I say yes. But of all the picks I'm giving out this is the one I give with the least confidence. But I still do like the Steelers in this one, just not sure if they will win by more then 10. Take the Steelers give the points.

New York Jets vs Buffalo +9

This is a must win for the Jets vs division mates the reeling Bills who just lost their entire offense of late, Fred Jackson for this game. This is another one that seems simple, but the Jets never seem to make things simple. They have had a lot of offensive struggles of late, especially Mark Sanchez. Its another scary one, but Buffalo has been completely dreadful of late, and it is hard to imagine them scoring 10 points so the Jets offense won't need to do much. Take the Jets at home and give the points (AGAIN!)

Indianapolis vs Carolina -3.5

Ok here we go...this is Indy's best chance to come off the snide. They are at home, off a bye and against a team that is almost as bad as they are. I believe in the Colts this week, even though it sounds crazy! If ever there was a week for them to win its here! At best they should be able to keep it within a FG which would mean they cover! Whatever fans are still coming to the park will be cheering loudly for the Colts. Jump on the Colts and look like a genius! Colts take the points.

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