Sunday, November 27, 2011

Sunday Shots

Snapping out of my Turkey coma this morning ...time to get back to business. Here are some things for you to look at when giving your FFB lineup one more look this morning.

1. DJ Ware is on track to play Monday night so if you were planning on going with B.Jacobs he will probably be sharing time again. Was hoping to get a look at Jacobs as the feature this week.

2. AP is officially out. Don't get too excited about Toby Gerhart vs the #2 ranked rush defense of the Falcons. If you need a deep flex play I would not be against starting Gerhart who could get you 50-60 yds and a score, but that is probably his upside.

3. Colts RB J.Addai practiced in full on Friday and will probably be back. I don't trust Addai until I see him make it through a ball game.

4. Philly WR J. Maclin will probably sit again, which gives Riley Cooper another shot at a start. I like Cooper who brings alot of size and red zone play making ability to the table.

5. Welcome back Julio Jones this week vs a miserable Minnesota Jones if he is active and I think he will be.

6. Don't get too excited about Cleveland RB P.Hillis having a Q beside his name...he probably won't play...Hardesty will be back in part time duty along with Oby-Wan ...avoid your Browns this week at Cincy.

7. For you owners holding onto's time to drop him...Best is officially out for the year with concussion symptoms and should be rethinking his career path as a RB.

Last week via Twitter I gave you some sleeper specials to run out and I hit big on them with M.Moore throwing 3 TDs and Jerome Simpson catching 8 balls over over 150 yards. This week we go real deep on our sleepers with Chaz Schilens from the Raiders and Taylor Price WR Patriots...Not sure I would play Price just yet, but get him on your radar as Ocho-Cinco sits today for the Pats. Price looked good in the preseason. Schilens has done well in limited duty over the past two seasons and may get a chance to shine today with DHB and D.Moore possibly out of the lineup.

Goodluck today...the playoffs are coming so every win is crucial.


Friday, November 25, 2011

Place Your Bets week 12

Hope everyone had a happy Thanksgiving with their loved ones! If you are ahead in your games from Thursday, you can take some risks on the weekend, or if you are behind you will need some advice! Here is my advice coming off a 3-2 week from my segment of the radio show last week.

Game of the week: New England over Philly even

This pick is "off" in most pick'em leagues meaning that oddsmaker's took it off the board because of uncertainties regarding the game. The most notable uncertainty is Mike Vick. But there are other injury issues as well, mostly on the Eagles side of the ball. Regardless of any of that, Philly at full strength vs. NE at full strength, I am taking NE. So with the various injuries to the Eagles, it is a lock that the Patriots will win this match-up. Even with the game at Philly. Take the Pats.

Atlanta vs Minnesota +9.5

It is rare for me to take this big of a dog against a team that I don't feel is elite like Atlanta. However, once again injuries play a big factor here for Minnesota. Adrian Peterson looks to be out, or if he plays certainly he will be limited. All signs point to him being out. He is the only effective offensive weapon the Viks have. Toby Gerhart has done a nice job in similar situations in the past and running a few trick plays with Percy Harvin will work ok for the first half. In reality they won't be running much in the second half anyway due to the scoreboard. That is because of the second key injury which is Antoine Winfield who is the Vikings best DB who is now on IR. Atlanta still has Roddy White and Julio Jones at WR and Mike Turner and Matt Ryan at RB and QB. This quartet will be too much for the depleted Minnesota D to handle. Atlanta easily outscores Minnesota by double digits, so take the Falcons and give the 9.5.

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City +10.5

This time of year it is difficult to predict when bad teams play good teams. Its easy to pick the winner, but the spread is much more difficult. This is one of those games. Pittsburgh has been normal on the road. Kansas City has been good at home. Kansas City looked good early on vs New England last week, but then terrible as the game progressed. I would not be surprised if KC comes out strong again this week, especially at home. They are still in the mix for their division even as bad as they are. However, Pittsburgh cannot afford to lose this one either or risk dropping out of the race for their division and possibly even endanger their wild card hopes. So the Steelers will win, but will they cover this double digit number? I say yes. But of all the picks I'm giving out this is the one I give with the least confidence. But I still do like the Steelers in this one, just not sure if they will win by more then 10. Take the Steelers give the points.

New York Jets vs Buffalo +9

This is a must win for the Jets vs division mates the reeling Bills who just lost their entire offense of late, Fred Jackson for this game. This is another one that seems simple, but the Jets never seem to make things simple. They have had a lot of offensive struggles of late, especially Mark Sanchez. Its another scary one, but Buffalo has been completely dreadful of late, and it is hard to imagine them scoring 10 points so the Jets offense won't need to do much. Take the Jets at home and give the points (AGAIN!)

Indianapolis vs Carolina -3.5

Ok here we go...this is Indy's best chance to come off the snide. They are at home, off a bye and against a team that is almost as bad as they are. I believe in the Colts this week, even though it sounds crazy! If ever there was a week for them to win its here! At best they should be able to keep it within a FG which would mean they cover! Whatever fans are still coming to the park will be cheering loudly for the Colts. Jump on the Colts and look like a genius! Colts take the points.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011


Doubt we are going to get around to doing a full Prep for you this week, but on Friday I will post some Sit / Start information to get you through your weekend. A few interesting things happened today around the fantasy world. The ride on the Fred Jackson train is now over as he was IR'd by the Bills today. In fantasy circles today owners are left scrambling for the CJ Spiller, Toby Gerhart, Ryan Grant and Kevin Smith's of the world to fill in. None of these guys will get you Fjax numbers, so all you can do is look at the matchups and fill week to week the best you can. Also, you have to love the news that Kyle Orton has been snatched up by the Chiefs. When Matt Cassell went down so did the values of all the chiefs WRs. Now with Orton in house guys like Steve Breaston and "some where over" Dwayne Bowe should regain some fantasy relevance.


Thursday, November 17, 2011

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Place Your Bets Week Ten

Busy week for me, only have about 5 minutes, so here is the quick rundown:

Philly even Arizona: PHILLY
Denver @ KC -3: KC
SanFran vs Giants +3.5: SanFran PICK OF THE WEEK
Green Bay vs Minn +13.5: Minn covers
Houston at Tampa Bay +3: Houston

Sorry can't elaborate...but didn't want to leave everyone hanging completely!


Thursday, November 10, 2011


Arizona at Philadelphia 1:00 PM FOX Lincoln Financial Field
Start Philly D/St - Zona sports one of the most disfunctional Oline's in the game.
Start - Beanie Wells and Larry Fitzgerald, sadly as a WR 2.
Philly's offense gets back on track here with nice games from Maclin, Djax, Vick
and McCoy who has been flat money all year.
Sit - B.Celek, Arizona QB, Kolb or Skelton and Early Doucet.

Tennessee at Carolina 1:00 PM CBS Bank of America Stadium
Start Camster, Smith and J.Stewart and G.Olsen
Sit - DeAngelo Williams and B.Lafell and Naanee.
Start Matt Hasselback
Sleeper is Damien Williams
Sit Tennessee RBs.
Tenn work will be working through the air trying to keep up with Cam and Company

Houston at Tampa Bay 1:00 PM CBS Raymond James Stadium
Start - Arian Foster, Schaub(temper expectations without Andre3000 who will
most likely sit until after the week 11 bye), and start Owen Daniels
Sit - J.Jones, K.Walter can't trust either of them.
Sleeper - Joel "salad" Dreesen
Modest Start is Josh Freeman...never goes off but is steady
In ppr's only start Mike Williams. Start L.Blount.
Sleeper for Tampa is Dezmon Briscoe.

Washington at Miami 1:00 PM FOX Sun Life Stadium
Start Roy Helu
Start R.Bush and B.Marshall
Sit - the rest

Jacksonville at Indianapolis 1:00 PM CBS Lucas Oil Stadium
Start MJD, Jags D/St
Start P.Garcon
Sleeper - Mercedes Lewis
Sit - the rest

Denver at Kansas City 1:00 PM CBS Arrowhead Stadium
Start Tebow, Magahee, Decker (be careful though, he is still only a no.3 WR at best.
You want proof...Tebow threw 5 times total in the second half last week. With
that small of an opportunity window there will be some clunkers along the way.
Sit Knowshon Moreno and D.Fells and Demaryius Thomas.

Start Matt Cassell - if you are hurting at QB Matt should bounce back here.
also run out D.Bowe and you can use J.Battle as a flex guy...should also bounce back.
I also like Steve Breaston this week...keeps doing it especially in pprs.
Sit - Jon Baldwin...the rook is gonna be patient.
also sit both dreadful D/St's

Buffalo at Dallas 1:00 PM CBS Cowboys Stadium
Start - Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson and Freddy Jax
Sleeper - David Nelson - big redzone target making the most of his targets.
Sit - Scott Chandler...will not do much in this matchup.
Start T.Romo - Bills have zero pass rush and Romo usually feasts with time
in the pocket. Start Witten and Dez Bryant and Demarco Murray who will be
ok but not great in his first so so start of the year.
Sleeper - Laurent Robinson - love this play as a no.3 WR.

New Orleans at Atlanta 1:00 PM FOX Georgia Dome
Start Brees and Sproles and Graham...the big fantasy 3 for the Saints.
Sit - Deverey Henderson and R.Meachum and Mark Ingram who should be
back from injury this week.
Modest a no.3 back I still think PT Cruiser could be of use this week.
ATL Starts include Matt Ryan (coming on of late) J.Jones, Turner and R.White
who has really disappointed this year and is looking more like a fantasy no.2 at
this point. Start Tony G...the ageless one.

St. Louis at Cleveland 1:00 PM FOX Cleveland Browns Stadium
Two teams looking for answers...the experts say sit pretty much every one in this
matchup, but I like S.Jackson for the Rams and I like Colt McCoy to have his first
good game for the Brownies in some time.
Sleeper in this game is Greg Little...if he can't score here he never will. I am
running him out in several leagues but will cut bait with him if he does not have
a real nice game this Sunday.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati 1:00 PM CBS Paul Brown Stadium
Should be a big defensive battle. I like Mendenhall this week and Mike
Wallace. Big Ben will be solid but not spectacular.
Andy Dalton is not a terrible play here as he will make the smart plays...won't
put up big numbers but could get two scores with his fast WR combo of
AJ Green and J.Simpson.
Sleeper - Jermaine Greshem returns this week and is nice in the red zone.
Sit - Antonio Brown and Cedric Benson

Baltimore at Seattle 4:05 PM CBS CenturyLink Field
Seattle is a sneaky good defense...especially at home so this one has the makes of an
ugly game for fantasy owners. Give me Ray Rice for sure and maybe Boldin gets
one score here...the rest..I don't want any part of it. I think M.Lynch's 4 game
scoring streak comes to an end here. Keep Torrey Smith on your radar...the kid
is really coming along...Lee Evans coming back...oh no! please no!

NY Giants at San Francisco 4:15 PM FOX Candlestick Park
Another Defensive game is on tap here...I do not think the Giants will be able
to run the ball at all here so look for alot of passes and a decent game out of Eli
and his WR's....H.Nicks could be back from his hammy this week...keep a watch on
that and adjust Manningham's value down if Nicks is back and leave Cruz active in
your lineup.
SF Starts include Gore if the ankle is healthy and Kendell Hunter if he for sorme reason
gets the carries...the Giants can be ran on. 49er WRs are banged up so stay away.
V.Davis has a great opportunity to break outta his funk this week.

Detroit at Chicago 4:15 PM FOX Soldier Field
Hope to see a bunch of points in this one. Start Stafford and Megatron off the bye
I don't love Stafford on the road in Chicago, but Megatron can help turn a bad
day into a good fantasy day in a hurry. B.Pettigrew is a sneaky play here.
Sit the rest of the Dtown WRs this week.
For the Bears M.Forte will continue to run wild, but will Marion the Barbarian
continue to steal his goal line thunder. Barber has become a flex play in deep
leagues. Cutler is a decent start here as well, but only God can tell you who
he will throw it too. Bears DST is not a bad play this week. At home they usually
force the turnovers and Hester is always a threat on special teams.

New England at NY Jets 8:20 PM NBC MetLife Stadium
Don't panic Brady owners...I can see a hard fought win on the road here.
Start Tommy and his TE's Hernandez and Gronk. The
"Law Firm" went off last time out vs the Jets so look for him to score again.
Branch scares me this week, but can be used as a no.3 if needed.

Mark Sanchez should put up decent numbers and throw for two scores.
Shonn Greene worries me in this one...something tells me the Jets will throw
alot vs the Pats weak pass defense.
Wildcard - Plaxico Burress - this guy is coming along and is a great high risk high
reward play in this one...If you need him as a fill in...throw him in there.

MNF - To honor ole' Hank "Are You Ready For Some Football!!!???"
I gotta pig in the ground, got some beer on ice an all my rowdy friends
are comin' over tonight.....
Minnesota at Green Bay 8:30 PM Lambeau Field
Start your Packers baby!!! and rest in your fantasy nirvana.
For the Vikings other than AP...well....goodluck with that.
I don't hate what Ponder brings to the table, but not in this environment.

GOODLUCK in week 10

Friday, November 4, 2011

Place Your Bets Week Nine

Wes has to work his 9-5 this week, so no radio broadcast today. Might be a good change of pace as the last two weeks have been rough for me. Sinking me from my high peek of 72% down to around only a pathetic 50%. Law of averages says I'm due for a bounce back week. Last week we saw that those averages can come into effect with just about every bad team (except my Redskins) coming to work and covering and/or winning.

This week has a lot of marquee match-ups and some very challenging picks. The NFL preaches parody and that was the first week we have seen it this season. I do not think it will rear its head two weeks in a row. Here are my picks:


New Orleans vs Tampa Bay +8

This is one of two spreads (the other is my next pick), that jumped off the page at me. The Bucs are continuing to get the snub this year and the Saints appear to still be getting lots of love off of their SB win 2 years ago. We have not seen this as much in 2011, but it is here this week. Tampa is coming off of a bye and has a divisional road game. This is the perfect time for a team on the cusp to face the divisional bully in their backyard. Couple that with a HUGE 8 point spread and I'm loving the Bucs this week certainly to keep it within a touchdown, if not win the game straight up. Some further trends I love, Tampa is 8-1 against the spread (ATS) as a road underdog, the Saints 0-6 ATS at home vs divisional opponent. Jump on the well-rested Bucs.

ATLANTA @ Indy Colts +7

Indy needs a bye week, the Falcons are coming off of one. Atlanta cannot drop this game if they want to stay on the contender list in the NFC. Playing the winless Colts off a bye is one you must win or else you are a fraud. That said, I believe Atlanta will fall short of the playoffs, but not at this point! They will crush the Colts, easily winning by the 7 points, and more likely double digits. Grab the Falcons, give the points.

Kansas City vs. Miami +4

This is another one that's hard to believe. Miami will trick a lot of people into taking them this week despite the low spread. KC is one of the toughest buildings to play in, and the Chiefs are rolling right now. It could be a trap game for them except they will be looking at the film from last week where the Fins almost "trapped" the Giants and will hopefully see what made the Miami squad successful. Matt Moore and Reggie Bush are the answers to that trap. They had a great first half, helped out by key blunders by the Giants. KC was also very opportunistic last week on MNF, but you don't win 4 straight on luck. Take the Chiefs and the friendly spread.

Tennessee vs Cincinnati -3

I wanted to pick some of the less popular matches this week as those are often places where you can make up big points because many people float past them and give them low points because they don't know much about the teams, which is a good idea, or the alternative is, do some research! Trends don't favor either team, I just think the Bengals are better until CJ gets it going. A one dimensional team with an old QB has 7-9 written all over it. I see the young and hungry and winning Bengals mauling the Titans in this one.

Green Bay @ San Diego +5.5

Good teams win off of a bye. You have heard me say that, and as the season drags on it becomes more and more true. Green Bay is the only undefeated team. Neither squad will likely have much of a running game, I'll take Aaron Rodgers in a shootout over any other QB starting this week. Take the Pack

Final Game: Pittsburgh vs Baltimore +3

After the week one drubbing the Steelers took at Baltimore it is hard to believe how far we have come to have them as the favorites even at home. But we have to remember, they had 7 turnovers. I think I can safely say that won't happen again. Baltimore will snap out of their slump eventually, and might have done it in the second half vs AZ, or AZ might simply be a bad team who has given up 3 or 4 similar leads this season in the second half. Pittsburgh at home in a grudge match, is hard to pass up. Baltimore has been average of late. Gotta take the home team who is also the better looking squad right now. Steelers -3

Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ gobeyondthebox or email me at the same handle @gmail.

The blogtalk radio show should be back next week!


Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Scouting the Wire for Week 9

Team getting a little stale? Need some fresh meat to run out there on Sunday? It's time to hit the wire and see what improvements we can make for week 9 of the NFL season.

Kansas City WR J.Baldwin - The rookie looks to be healthy now and he provides a big target opposite Bowe for Cassell. The schedule for the Chiefs over the next few weeks looks great for fantasy so take a chance on Baldwin especially in keeper leagues.

Tenn.Titans RB - Javon Ringer - Now is a full fledged split with CJ2K Ringer can catch the ball and provide a spark to your fantasy team. Ringer is not an elite talent, but at this stage of the year bye week fill in's at RB are hard to find.

N.E.Patriots RB Kevin Faulk - fresh off the PUP list Faulk came out looking pretty good and could provide a nice backup RB slot on your fantasy team. I prefer to pick him up in PPR's.

Eagles TE Brent Celek - You may not get this past Sunday's numbers out of Celek every week, but it is interesting to note his high targets the last two Eagles games. If you took a chance on SF TE Delanie Walker throw him back and snag up Celek and at least wait and see.

Dallas Cowboy WR Laurent Robinson - In deeper leagues Robinson is worth a look. Miles Austin owners are cursing the ground that this guy walks on due to J.Garrett's odd call of putting Austin in the slot last week and running Robinson out on the outside opposite Dez Bryant. Keep and eye on this...if it continues he is worth a look due to Dallas' fairly good fantasy schedule down the stretch.

If you are looking for a QB Matt Cassell can be found on many a waiver wire and has a very easy schedule over the next few weeks. Others you can look for are Sam Bradford who has been mostly dropped across the board and has a good 2nd half schedule as well as K.Kolb who has a good matchup in week 9 vs Sam's Rams and a few more down the stretch that should have his 2nd half numbers looking better as well.

Time to sure up your handcuffs...Kendell Hunter and B.Tate, Ronnie Brown, Monterio Hardesty and others are floating around the wire right now with most managers crunched for roster space due to the bye weeks. If you did not draft your handcuff and have the space for them now...go out and get them to provide yourself some security down the stretch. Take this opportunity, this second chance to secure you backups.

If there is someone you are targeting in leagues right now not on our list please post it in the comments and tell us why you are looking at that player.