Friday, September 23, 2011

Place Your Bets Week Three

Due to a work related issue, we were not able to do our regular podcast appearance this week, so I am back on the blogosphere!

I hate average. Last week I was average again hitting only 50%. I did give you another money pick on my lock of the week (2-0 on the year there) with Giants over the Rams.

50/50 might work for some scrub, but the best handicappers pick in the mid 60's percentage wise. So look out! This week is where I make up some ground, and so will you if you read carefully and apply!

A large amount of inter-divisional games this week, those are usually the toughest to call which is why I'm going to give you several of them, I like a challenge!

First, call me crazy but dannnng, Detroit is good! What happened!? They are healthy, that's a big thing. As long as they are, keep crushing them because Vegas still sees them as the team that made their fans wear bags over their heads for decades. What is most effective at stopping Adrian Peterson? A HUGE defensive line that clogs all of his holes...hmm, guess who has that this week? That's right Detroit! AP is the Minnesota offense. Get on Detroit this week and give the 3.5 points at Minnesota.

New England @ Buffalo +8.5

Holy cow, is this a trap game? Similar to the Lions it looks like the Vegas boys think this is just a masquerade in Buffalo. 8.5 home dog? Do not let that pass you by! But what about Brady you say? But what about Fitzpatrick? He is smart, and that does matter in the NFL. He graduated from Harvard. He knows how to study film and the playbook. He will pick apart the NE defense that has given up piles of yards. Yeah but that was Phillip Rivers...yes it was but it was also Chad Henne. Buffalo is more balanced and has a sharp QB. I'm close to taking Buffalo outright on this game, but am VERY confident that they will keep it to a one possession game. Take the BILLS and the points.

We will break from the inter-division match-ups for one game, but stick to the Southern part of the league! Jacksonville @ Carolina +3.5

What is the NFL coming too? I mean seriously? If I told you in the off season that I'd be picking Detroit, Buffalo and Carolina in the same week, you would think that the spread must just be too high. No, two of them are favored and the other is at home and 2-0. Carolina hasn't won a thing this year. BUT Cam Newton has been impressive. He even put up nice digits against the vaunted Packers defense last week and had the ability to win that game as he did in week one vs Arizona. This week they are at home versus the horrific Jaguars. It will be Gabbert's first game as a starter, but unlike Newton he has been getting third string snaps until week one when Garrard was cut. Third string snaps equal basically no snaps. He will need at least a week to get things going, so this is a great week to pick against the Jags. Take the Panthers and give the points.

NFC EAST matchups!

First Washington @ Dallas the Monday nighter. Since I have made the MNF game my lock of the week both weeks so far, I will not do so this week, even though I really like one side of this one.
The "number" is important here. I have seen everything from even, to Dallas giving 6 pts. Hear me clearly, I like the Skins to ROLL in this game. If you can get the Redskins AND 6 points take that like its free money. Big hittin' safety Laron Landry will be back in the lineup for the first time this year, and trust me he will help that already vastly improved defense. He was easily the Skins defensive MVP until he went down with an Achilles last year in week 9. He makes everyone else better, that's what impact players do.
On the other side, Romo:injured, Austin-out, Jones: banged, Witten-has a boo-boo, Dez Bryant's hurtin'. That offense will struggle to move the ball and Romo will try and do too much resulting in either turnovers or injury. Take the Skins outright.

Pick of the Week: Eagles over the Giants (even spread)
Another pick-em in the NFC East, and another free game given to you courtesy of the odds-makers. The Giants Defense is decimated. Yes I picked them as the lock over the Rams last week, but that was because of the Rams not the Giants! The Eagles are at home and not getting the free 3 points that is routinely given to the home team. That means Vegas thinks the Giants are 3 points better then the Eagles. Wow. This is one of two things, either Vick's injury is spooking the experts, or there is a NY bias. If it is the first one, get on the Eagles today before Vick is announced the starter, which will happen most likely. If it is the second, which does happen early in the year, this is another free space. Rack it up and take the Eagles over the Giants.

Looking for 5-0 this week...

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