Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Place Your Bets Returns! Week One

Early season picks are always a crap shoot, but this year I think it is a little easier then normal. With no OTA's and less reps in practice for everyone, the teams who have made the least changes will be in the best shape this early part of the year.

Pick of the week: New England at Miami +7 New England has been destroying its competition with a Vanilla pre-season showing, but chocolate results. They are one of only a few teams who have their entire core nucleus on offense returning, or upgraded in the one or two spots they have new guys. In this early part of the year I am looking for teams with proven QB's in systems where they have proven they can excel.The more new faces especially at key positions, the more likely I am to go against that team. New England, as money as it gets vs Miami who are totally in flux/Henne at QB RB's are new I doubt Miami is competitive in this game.

Baltimore vs Pittsburgh +2.5

I am amazed at this spread given the dominance Pittsburgh has shown over the Flacco led Ravens. The Ravens have some serious issues on the offensive line and some holes on defense being filled with young players. Pittsburgh also has a few spots of weakness, BUT overall the key people at the key positions that have dominated for years, are still the same. PLUS Pitt is getting 2.5 points. All they have to do is win by any margin and the pick is ours....I love the Steelers in this one, actually anytime the Steelers are getting points I like them!

Cleveland vs Cincinnati +6.5

It must be AFC North week for me...cinci is terrible. Probably the worst team in the league. Rookie QB, rookie WR...can you say 10 in the box? Cleveland has a new coach/system and a run defense that is suspect, BUT they have great special teams with Cribbs and Dawson and I expect they will get great field position all day because of this and the potential for turnovers from Dalton and the Bengals O. With a spread of under a TD take Cleveland and run...

Season Opener Green Bay -4 vs New Orleans

This is more of a gut thing then anything. Green Bay's first game at home since they won the SB, you know the Cheese-heads will all be out and smelling up the place! New Orleans running game should be improved with the addition of Mark Ingram and subtraction of Reggie Bush. Although Bush will hurt them on teams. Also suspect are the Saints wide-outs. The top couple of guys are both battling injury and the next two are not guys who have proven they can take the premier spot when called on every down. Brees will be peppered by Raji, Mathews and friends, and I just think it will be a long and ugly night for the Saints. Take Green Bay give the points.

The final game will shock you...but fits with my theme:

Philadelphia @ St.Louis +5
5 points at home. St.Louis has not changed too much and Philly, well it is well known how much the "Dream Team" has changed this off-season. As a Redskins fan, I can attest, chemistry does matter. I do not believe this Philly team will come out of the game with guns blazing and in perfect sync and harmony. Playing on the road vs the likely NFC West divisional Champs is a tough match-up. You make it a FG game and I will take the Rams all day. Call me crazy...email me on Monday!

Looking forward to another great season!

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