Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Place Your Bets Wild Card Weekend!

Alright so I got back on track last weekend going 3-1 with my only miss being once again by 1 pt.

That puts me at 17-12 vs the spread and 21-8 straight up for the regular season. Which is almost 60% Win percentage. Considering most handicappers target between 50 and 60 % I will take it! Here are my playoff picks for Wild Card weekend:

The final spreads are not in yet but I will give you the numbers as they are listed now, and if it changes that's on you!

New Orleans @ Seattle +10.5

I gave you Seattle last week as a home dog, and once again I like them in this game to cover. I believe New Orleans will win the game but a double digit playoff game with a home underdog is unheard of. It may be the first time in the history of the NFL in fact. Factor that in with the Saints taking the longest road trip they will take all year, and it is a really good spot for Seattle. These teams did meet in New Orleans on Week 11 and the Saints won 34-19. Home field is an issue so I say jump on the Hawks if you can get it for over 10.

New York Jets @ Indianapolis -2.5

Both teams have been involved in primarily close games every week. Indy has won 4 straight, 3 of those against their own divisional opponents. Rex Ryan likes to talk a lot, Peyton likes to do his talking on the field calling audibles and yelling out the plays in the huddle. Peyton has historically fried the Jets and teams like them who think they have a tremendous scheme and don't need to tailor it to any specific team. That plays into Peyton's hands as he is a guy who studies film. If the Jets do as they have continued to do each week and don't make changes, Peyton will kill them. That's what I see happening. The biggest blow-out of the weekend goes to Indy, who is off everyone's radar right now, just like the year they won the Superbowl. Take Indy regardless of the spread. This is my lock of the week.

Baltimore @ Kansas City +3

This is by far the game I have the least confidence in picking. Baltimore has experience and pedigree on the field and off. KC has it off the field in its coordinators. KC runs the ball and Baltimore is stout against the run. So it all comes down to that, can Baltimore stop the KC run game on the road at another stadium where home field is an advantage? I believe KC can. This will be a highly contested game back and forth and likely low scoring, but with KC getting 3 points at home, I have to take the Chiefs in this one.

Green Bay @ Philadelphia -2.5

These two teams played in week 1 when Kevin Kolb went down and Vick took over. So that game is nowhere close to an indication of how this week will go since so much has changed in particular on the Eagles side of the ball. Green Bay won that game which was at Philadelphia 27-20. What should be more telling is that these teams also played each others division. That doesn't help either as they were both 7-4 vs common opponents. Both high powered QB's were injured for a few games. So this one is quite an even match up. So it comes down to a gut feeling, and mine says Green Bay will have something to prove after last year's embarrassing defeat to Arizona. There defense in particular has something to prove. Vick has looked human in his last few starts and the GB Defense has been quite difficult. Philly has a soft defense and Aaron Rodgers is much like Peyton Manning, if you don't disguise or change what you are doing, you're in big trouble. I love Green Bay to upset the Eagles in this game. Take the points and the Pack.

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