Saturday, January 22, 2011

Place Your Bets Divisional Championship Week

In the NFC we have Green Bay @ Chicago + 3.5

At this stage in the playoffs you have to have a good defense or an outstanding offense to stay alive. But the most important factor is your QB. In this game you have Aaron Rodgers vs Jay Cutler. With both defenses being close to equal, cold weather for two cold weather teams, and an even match up head to head this season, it has to come down to QB play which also usually is closely knit to turnovers.
Rodgers is the top 3-5 ranked QB in the NFL. Some would argue he is number 1. Jay Cutler is a top 5-10 QB when he is on his game, which is about 80% of the time. The problem is the other 20% he puts up numbers worse than Matt Moore and Jamarcus Russell. I think he will be somewhere in between that this week, but turnovers at costly times will haunt the Bears, and the Pack will win by a TD. I'll take the road favorite Green Bay and give the points.

AFC matchup surprisingly puts the New York Jets @ the Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5

Both teams are solid on both sides of the ball, but if it comes down to QB play, I'll take Big Ben in a big time game over almost anyone. The Steelers at home does matter. It is the epitome of a hostile environment. I don't see the Jets winning the game, but I did not see them beating New England either. Can they keep it to a FG game, thus winning the spread? That is the crucial question. I say no. The Steelers in the playoffs are a tough out. Take them at home to cover the 3.5.

Next week I will give a Super bowl preview and then the following week I will pick the big game which according to me will be Pack vs Pitt.!

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