Sunday, January 9, 2011

2010 DRAFT HITS & MISSES


We all had our hits and misses in the 2010 draft. In this article we run down a few popular hits and misses from 2010 fantasy football drafts.






MISSES
1. Ryan Mathews RB SD Chargers - Picked by many managers in the first round or at the very latest at the turn of your drafts he was pumped up by the larger fantasy media people as being a lock, a young stud, a feature to carry your team. Well we all know how that worked out. Ryan did have 7 TDs this season, but 3 of those was in his last game...a meaningless game in week 17 when most fantasy leagues are setting keepers for next season. Mathews problem was that he could not stay healthy. I like his prospects for 2011, but I don't think anyone is going to be taking him in the first round again. We warned you here at SFS not to take him that early...rookie running backs simply cannot be the cornerstone of your team.
***note - I would have put Jahvid Best,Lions RB on this list, but he was not being taken as seriously as Mathews. Best was derailed with a bad toe injury that killed him all year. Another RB, CJ Spiller of the Bills was a monster bust as well, but is not on this list because he was not given ample opportunity in his rookie campaign.

2. Brandon Marshall, WR, Miami Dolphins - Hands down this guy is my bust of the year. Marshall was taken anywhere from early 2nd to late 3rd round in almost every draft I was in. He is a beast of a talent with unlimited potential, but fell victim to terrible QB play and little time to run routes thanks to Miami's bad offensive line....truly offensive! All that left us with this BMarsh stat line;
86 receptions - 1014 yards and 3 TD's. I think that owners could have stomached the 86 catches, but 3 TD's!? His stock will fall in 2011, but many owners won't let a talent like his fall very far.

3. Steve Smith - WR, NY Giants -Steve Smith was a PPR darling in 2009 with over 100 catches for the Gmen. Steve was a favorite of Eli Manning in '09 which had drafters salivating at the PPR gold that fell into many of our laps in the early middle rounds. Sadly Mr.Smith broke off a disappointing line that included 48 catches, only 9 games played, 529 yds and only 3 TDs. With the emergence of Hakeem Nicks, Smith's stock is pretty much set as a top end 70 catch guy with no more than a 6 TD projection going into next year in my opinion so adjust your rankings.

4. Randy Moss WR, Pats, Vikings and Titans - Statistically Randy was dreadful and could be labeled this years bust king, but I for one did not expect more than a middle round performance out of this guy anyway. That said, no one could predict Moss shrinking into a player that was not rosterable down the stretch of the 2010 season. He was player that you simply could not play in the deepest of leagues come playoff time. I don't know what to think of Randy going into 2011. I can't say that I wouldn't take him very late....but I put the emphasis on VERY.

5. Shonn Greene RB NY Jets - This guy was a flat monster closing out the 2009 abusing opponents with great runs that usually led to him hitting the defender rather than him getting hit. I for one could not wait to see Rex pound this guy 25 times a game in 2010...in came LT and the questions about who will get the largest share of the carries. I for one thought a 50-50 split would happen eventually and once the weather got cold Rex Ryan would have Greene's hammering style on full display. Even as LT seemed to age in front of our eyes after a brilliant early season run...Greene never caught fire and ended up being a huge bust for owners who took him as their #2 RB. I don't see a great uptick in value for 2011 for Shonn unless the injury bug hits LT. I guess if you draft one you almost have to draft the other.

***Honorable mention - Ray Rice RB Baltimore - Catches down, TDs way way down. If you draft a RB in the early to mid-1st round, he simply has to get into the end zone. Ray Ray had a putrid 3 rushing TDs in the fantasy regular season and no receiving TD's til the fantasy playoffs where he also had two more rushing TDs. That's all well and good but if Ray was your main guy there is a strong probability that you weren't in the playoffs to enjoy it. Scale Ray's value back next year.....you can draft Ahmad Bradshaw and get basically the same stats. In PPR's Rice still carries a big stick with his ability to catch the ball. Ray's value will be interesting to watch and probably will drastically vary from draft to draft.

Let's hear some of our readers MISSES and what you think their draft value will be going forward...there are plenty of them out there.

HITS

1. Tom Brady, QB Pats. Tom was taken by many 2010 drafters somewhere in the late 2nd to late 3rd round somewhere around the same spot Tony Romo was taken. In his second year back from injury Tom was a flat assassin this season and showed that he just needed 1 more year coming off his knee injury to become the old Tom Brady. Just give this guy some short little unknown projects for WR's and his old flame Deion Branch and let him go to work. Tom's gonna win the MVP this year and in early 2011 probably the Super Bowl as well. In 2011 fantasy drafts Brady will most likely go mid to late first round in many leagues as A.Rodgers and Drew Brees did this past season. I value him as a mid to late 2nd round pick in 2011.

2. Arian Foster RB Texans - My fantasy MVP this year is Arian Foster. Picked as low as the 5th round in many drafts this season Arian was a flat monster in 2010. Late in the draft season many drafters started adjusting their value on Foster and drafting him abit higher, but no one saw the domination that Foster was about to unleash on opponents. Unlike some freak performances in the past by fantasy RBs this one is legit. Foster has a good QB and one of the best WR's in the game today to keep the pressure off him in 2011 and should again post really really good numbers. It doesn't hurt that the Texans have a notoriously bad defense which forces them to put up big numbers rather than just salting games away in the 4th quarter. Another great thing about Foster is that he catches the ball well so he is in the game in all situations. For all of the reasons listed above I rank Foster as my number 1 RB going into the 2011 season. As a pure talent I still like Adrian Peterson over Foster, but until the QB situation is straightened out in Minnesota, Foster is my #1.
Foster in 2010 - 1,616 yards and 16 TD's

3. Roddy White WR Falcons - Roddy White was money in 2010 and clearly the best WR in the league. With others having their game decline, BMarsh, Reggie Wayne, and others battling injuries all year long, Andre3000 and Megatron, Roddy did his thang to the tune of 115 receptions, 1,389 yds receiving and 10 TD's. The amazing part about White is that he did all that without a true no.2 WR to take any pressure off him. Every one knows White is getting the ball and he still gets open anyway. White's TD's numbers could and probably will go up in 2010 with the continued improvement in Matt Ryan's game. White is in a great situation on an improving team and potential star at the QB position. I expect White to be picked in the late first round much the same as Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson were the previous two seasons. I caution against going this direction unless you are in a PPR and want that guaranteed monster at the top of your WR lineup. I would value him early 2nd round along side of guys like Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson and the next guy I am about to talk about.

4. Dwayne Bowe WR Kansas City has always been a unique talent...sure he drops some balls here and there...he disappeared completely in 2009 and was written off by many critics. Dwayne was being valued as a comeback type of player by some in 2010 and others took a flyer on him late as WR depth dwindled late in drafts. I did not see this one coming and ended up with Bowe on none of my teams. Bowe was one of the hottest players in the 2010 fantasy football season and owners who drafted him are probably still bragging to their buddies and making fun of the guy who picked Brandon Marshall. Bowe had a mind boggling 15 td's in 2010. He is a big WR that can catch in traffic so his avg speed is not a problem....he is sort've in the mold of Marcus Coleston, but has alot less competition for balls with KC's rather pathetic depth at WR. Like Roddy White, he has no real competition for receptions and red zone looks so his value will be very high in 2011. You may not get 15 TD's again, but 10+ is very likely with Bowe playing on an up and coming Chiefs team.

5. Terrell Owens WR Bengals - Many out there thought that TO was done...not because of declining skills, but more because he would be a cancer to any organization that brought him aboard. The Bengals took a chance on TO and reaped the rewards. Fantasy owners also reaped the rewards of a later round pick that ended up being a top 5 fantasy WR through much of the year. TO was a model citizen for the most part for the Bengals and though they didn't win alot of games, Owens won alot of respect around the league and made himself a whole lot of future money. This past year only one team signed up for his services...in 2011 the contenders will come a calling and TO will be making some jack and setting a nice example for Randy Moss along the way. Hey imagine that, shutting up and playing works. TO's 2011 value will depend on the team that picks him up, but I see no reason he won't approach 800 yds receiving and 8 TDs next season if he has a QB that can get him the ball. T.Owens 2010 - 72 rec. 982 yds and 9 TDs. If TO gets on the right team next year I would take him as my number 2 WR without question.

***Honorable mention - Ahmad Bradshaw RB Giants - One of my favorite picks from this years draft. The do it all back claimed his spot as the giants feature for most of this year and put up no.1 RB stats for much of the season. He will have a huge uptick in value in 2011 if he can stop fumbling the rock.

Let us know some of your fantasy football draft HITS. Give us the run down about where you drafted them and how they paid off for you.

WES
theshow





No comments:

Post a Comment