Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Place Your Bets Week 15

Okay Okay, sorry! I was due for a bad week as I correctly predicted in last week's post! I went 1-3 and even missed my lock of the week (first time) but on a garbage TD as the clock expired, missing the spread by 1 pt but hitting the straight up pick with Indy over Tenn. Hopefully you didn't lose your shirt as a smart wager is to do the same as you did the week before...since I had 4 winner's the previous week, I hope you are still well on the black side of things. For the year I am 10-5 (spread) and 14-1 straight up. Took my first loss of the year straight up with Denver laying an egg against rookie QB Skelton. I also gave St.Louis to cover but New Orleans to win straight up...Rams didn't cover or win!

On to some winner's this week!

Let's start in Baltimore where New Orleans comes to town as a two point underdog. This is significant since I gave you the stat last week that New Orleans is the ONLY team left this year who was favored in every game so far. That streak is over this week as the odds-makers like the home field advantage of M&T Bank Stadium. It will be cold and blustery for sure, but that is not much of an issue in my opinion. Baltimore was exposed last week by Houston as a tired old defense. They lead the league in blown leads in the 4th quarter, which is directly attributed to the bad conditioning that is obvious in Baltimore's defense. New Orleans will win this game, take the Saints and come back kid Drew Brees who are getting 2 points. (Take New Orleans plus 2) Also LOVE the over here! (43.5)

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis -5

That's not a typo...Colts are giving 5 points to the Jags. In the first match-up the Jags won on the last play of the game a 59 yard field goal by Josh Scobee on Oct. 3rd. Since then MJD has been on fire (he had 1 rushing and one receiving TD on that day and 105 rushing yards), and Peyton Manning has been throwing picks (he had one that day) and both teams have been going in the opposite direction we thought they would be going in at this time of year. Some differences between now and then? Manning doesn't have Collie or Clark or Addai healthy, MJD has been a beast and the Jags are playing with great confidence. I love the Jags in this spot. For once they can put there foot on the Colts throat possibly putting them out of the playoff picture and effectively clinch the AFC South with a win all in the same day. The Jags have never won the division and the Colts have only lost it twice, and still made the playoffs those years. This is the chance Jacksonville has been waiting for since 2002. Jump on the Jags who are getting 5 points!

Denver @ Oakland -6.5

Yet another divisional game, and another easy winner. The last time these two met was also a pivotal change of direction game for both squads. You remember it, both teams were 2-4 and we did not know if either team was for real, one team left no doubt the second team left no doubt that they were horrible. The result? Oakland 59-14 winners AT Denver. Oakland has been trending up ever since and looking like they may win that division, Denver is 1-5 and has fired its coach since that game. Not much to say except TAKE OAKLAND give the 6.5! Denver got demolished by a horrible Arizona team last week! Good Lord...take the Raiders to the bank! (Oakland -6.5)

Two more games since I was so bad last week...

The two glamor games on Sunday and Monday night.

Green Bay @ New England even

LOCK OF THE WEEK! Aaron Rodgers may not play, even if he does New England has looked unstoppable wherever they have played and especially at home. If Rodgers does not play, this game is the lock of the century at even. If he does play, its still a 100% solid pick on New England. I'm still shaking my head that this is listed as even. Grab it before they change it. SPRINT to New England at even.

MNF has Chicago @ Minnesota- even

Quick quiz, who is Minnesota's third string QB? I had no idea until right now when I looked it up...its Joe Webb. Who? Good question. Here is all you need to know, he was returning kicks for Minnesota 2 weeks ago! Guess what...Favre is likely done for his career, Tarvaris Jackson has turf toe and most likely won't be playing unless needed, that leaves Joe Webb making his first career start on MNF vs the division leading Bears who just need a win and a GB loss (see above) to clinch the NFC North. If the Bears can't get it done here, they are pretenders. Take Da Bears for my second lock of the week at even or up to a TD if you can get it! Webb/Jackson/Favre it doesn't matter at even, its Bears all the way...

To recap I gave out 6 winners this week:

Locks of the week (one bonus because of my crap showing last week):
New England over Green Bay (even) and Chicago over Minnesota (even)

New Orleans straight up over Baltimore -2 plus take the over 43.5 in this one.
Oakland -6.5 vs Denver
Jacksonville + 5 straight up over Indy

5 straight winner's and one O/U winner...good luck.

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