Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Place Your Bets Week 14

Well of course I'm on top of the world today, which means I likely will bust this week!!! I'm excited of course because of my perfect 4-0 last week, right here on this blog. Bringing my season record to 9-2 vs the spread and 11-0 straight up! I hope the readers made some nice positive moves in the right direction in whatever venture they are using my advice to gain success.

This week I have four straight plays for you. As the season grinds on trends will continue to develop, bad teams get worse and good team get better, that is the theme of the week. The big boys will gain more separation, see MNF last week with New England's overall dismantling of the Jets.

Atlanta @ Carolina +7

Few homes teams are good (bad) enough to warrant a 7 point home dog spread at this point in the season, but the Panthers are up for the task. I hate going to the same team again (that is betting against the same team!) BUT if the spread stays so low on Carolina like it was last week and is again this week, I have to give the best winner's. Last week Carolina was plus 6 at Seattle. This week they are plus 7 at home versus Atlanta. Atlanta is miles ahead of the Hawks. Let's face it, if Atlanta doesn't destroy the Panthers here, you have to ask the question; are the Falcons really a legit contender for the Superbowl? At this point in the year a legit contender that is 10-2 should be running a 1-11 team out of the building. Oakland was a 13 point underdog last week on the road in the division and blew out San Diego, who is much better then Carolina. This should be a 21 point win or better for Atlanta, but at -7 its a lock. Take the Falcons.

Indianapolis at Tennessee +3

I dogged both these teams last week and was on the money, this week Indy is the money play. Two bad omens for the Titans this week, 1) Peyton Manning was a turnover machine against Dallas, how many times have you heard that in the last decade? Probably zero. 2) The Colts have lost 3 straight. How many times has that happened in the last decade? Umm...pretty sure that is also a zero. It is a zero for sure when they weren't resting there starters! The Colts are in a must win situation and coming off the worst stretch of ball they have played since Peyton's rookie year. They will explode on the Titans. HOUSTON shut out the Titans two weeks ago! HOUSTON! This will get ugly fast...push in all your chips on Indy, this is my lock of the week, take Indy tomorrow night -3.


Denver @ Arizona even

If we have learned three things this year in the NFL they are: 1) when a coach gets fired in season, look out whoever that team plays the next few weeks! In the two weeks after a mid season coach firing, those teams are 4-0 and have MAULED their opponents. 2) Arizona has not had a QB all year 3) Rookie QB's that aren't top picks or playing most of the year have not faired too well this season and John Skeleton looks to be the starter this week for Arizona.
Heard enough? Take Denver to the bank...all they have to do is win, they will do that easily.

St. Louis @ New Orleans -9

I almost fell out of my chair when I saw this line. Only one team in football has been favored EVERY week this season. One. The Superbowl champs. Its called the Superbowl bias and Vegas has got it in a big way for the Saints. Although they are a quiet 9-3 overall, they are 4-7-1 against the number. Conversely, the Rams are 9-2-1 vs the spread. This is a game between two dome teams, so no significant advantage goes to the Saints. St.Louis is not as good as the Saints but they are very much in the mix for their division, and only the division winner will make the playoffs from the West, that is for sure. The Rams need this game. Not only is 9 points way to many, I believe the Rams can win this outright. Take the Rams to cover at +9

4 games, 4 winner's best of luck to all of you this week!

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