Thursday, December 2, 2010

Place Your Bets Week 13

As the season moves along it should be easier to forecast games right? That is the line you here from many handicappers, but not from me. My view is that the further the season progresses the better VEGAS gets at setting the lines. For example last week I gave you three games to stay away from, Pitt @ Buffalo (decided in overtime) home dog covers but loses. Washington vs Vikings, a punt return was called back on a dumb penalty by a rookie, otherwise Washington wins that game, and the third game I gave to be wary of was Cleveland and Carolina. I told you at even to take Cleveland, but at -11 it was too close to call. Cleveland won by one point. As the weeks progress there will be more games like these and less obvious winner's.

That being said I was 3-1 last week, once again missing by only 1 pt in the New Orleans Dallas game. That puts me at 5-2 for the year. The two misses have been by a total of 1.5 points! This week I will do something a little different and give my first over and under pick of the year in tonight's game Philly vs Houston.

The number for the game is 51. Take the over for 5 stars. Houston cannot stop anyone, except Rusty Smith (hope you hit that one heavy like I told you to last week!). But Vick and the Eagles are not Smith and the Titans! The Eagles will score at will, remember MNF vs the Redskins? I do, I was there! However, Houston has what the Redskins did not, the ability to both pass and run. They will also score at will on Philly, which means it will be a shootout, thus the play of the over 51. Since this is my first over/under, I will make this my lock of the week!

As mentioned I am 5-2 against the spread this year, but 7-0 straight up! Pretty nice start! All games I will give will be against the spread on this site, but I am keeping track of the straight up picks! On to the games...
Carolina @ Seattle -6. Seattle is coming off of a tough stretch but are still tough to beat at home. Their two losses at home have been to the Giants and Chiefs, two teams that look playoff bound. Carolina is a disaster, but still seems to be playing for Coach Fox. That being the case this line is not horrible as Seattle is very up and down. I don't think Vegas knows what to think about either team. I know what to think, Seattle. Hasselback is now back at QB which makes the Hawks much better. Carolina still has no leader on the field. All Seattle has to do is win by a TD, I see them easily covering this week. Take Seattle -6.

Oakland @San Diego -13: This one is simple, the spread is too large. I know SD is on fire as it is now December, but this is a divisional game and Oakland is still in the mix in that division. I don't see this as a blowout. San Diego will win the game, but Oakland is going to cover. 2 TD's is a lot in a divisional game with both teams fighting for the division lead. Take Oakland +13

New York Jets @ New England -3.5: New England is unbeaten at home, and rarely loses twice to the same team. These two matched up early in the season and the Jets won. New England is playing much better now, and the Jets, although winning, have not looked that good. Its MNF when the lights are bright, which usually means Brady shines. Take the Pats -3.5.

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