Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Place Your Bets Week 12 Thanksgiving Edition

First off, happy Thanksgiving to all of you, make sure you spend lots of time with those you love this extended weekend!

In case you get bored, the NFL has given us 3 games now on Thanksgiving in recent years, I will pick all three of those games as well as a few other tips.

Last week I was 2-1 missing the New England game by half a point...not a bad start! I hit my lock of the year (Balt -10 over Car) and lock of the week (Atl -3 @ STL).

Here we go starting with some more winners: On Turkey Day I will give you my choice for all three games since they are played tomorrow.
New England -6.5 @ Detroit: This game looks like a sucker bet for The Patriots, but the number has gotten smaller this week, indicating that people like Detroit. However, I don't see that trend as it looks to me that New England is the choice of most. If you can get 6.5 for New England, take it. I like New England by at least a TD in this one, as Detroit is historically bad on Turkey Day and New England loves to shine brightest when the lights are shining.

TAKE NEW ENGLAND -6.5

New Orleans @ Dallas: Both teams are surging of late and Dallas is the polar opposite of Detroit on Turkey day. They have dominated lately. However the Saints have had one of the quietest Super Bowl defending seasons ever this year, in large measure to there porous record against the number early on this year. However, they have been great of late and have pulled those statistics close to even for the season. Dallas is rejuvenated, but New Orleans is still superior because of Drew Brees. Take New Orleans, give the points.
TAKE NEW ORLEANS - 3.5

Cincinnati @ New York Jets- If you can get this game for under 10 points it is a no-brainer for the Jets. Most places are giving -9 in favor of the team in green. This is easy money as the game is at New York and The Bengals are one of the NFL's worst 5 teams. Carson Palmer is hurt. No doubt. Watch him and how he treats his shoulder during this game and you will see. Jets want a statement game especially against two mouthy wide outs on national television. Jets will roll by two TD's. This is my lock of the week.

TAKE JETS -9 for 5 stars.

One last big play is Houston vs Tennessee. It is an even play or -1 play most places. Lock in the even or -1 now! Houston will demolish the Titans. Houston offense is still formidable and their D is facing Rusty Smith in his first start. That means a heavy dose of Chris Johnson, which is normally bad, but when he is the only threat, no RB can stop 8 in the box. Johnson will get his yards, and is still a nice fantasy play, but this will be a trouncing by the Texans.

Take the Texans now while most still have it as even...

GAMES to ignore:

Minnesota @ Washington: Skins have been like a roller coaster and are severely banged up, Minnesota has a new coach, and we saw what Jason Garrett did for the Cowboys. Hard to figure this game out, so leave it alone.

Pittsburgh- Buffalo: Buffalo has been scoring and playing as a cohesive unit, Pittsburgh has looked good lately, but the 6.5 points makes this one too tough to call at Buffalo.

Carolina @ Cleveland: This was even but in one day went to -11 Cleveland. At that number its dangerous to play. Baltimore needed all four quarters to pull away last week with a similar spread, Cleveland is not Baltimore. Don't play this unless you get it for single digits.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

Paul

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