Thursday, November 18, 2010

Place your Bets Week 11 NFL Picks

Big thanks to Wes for inviting me to write for Show Fantasy Sports Blog as a baseball writer and NFL handicapper! Thanks Wes!

Since I am in numerous pick em leagues I will not be giving all of my picks here, if you would like my complete list you can follow me on twitter @paul_craft or email me


I want to start this blog with a BANG as I release my 5 star LOCK of the YEAR right here on Show Fantasy Sports! Nothing like starting out high risk!

Before I get to that pick let me break down a couple of other games that I really like.

New England giving 3.5 to vs Indy.

Normally this is about who Indy has; Manning, Wayne, Freeney and Mathis. This week it is about who they don't have...which is ANYONE else! It is a team laced with injuries who might well be starting its 4th string RB and 4th on the depth chart WR and 3rd string TE. That worked against a few teams, but against a well coached and healthy New England squad, its a mess. New England is 4-0 at home and so is Indy...but the game is outdoors in chilly Foxborough. I love New England to throttle the Colts. The only thing that keeps this from a pounding is if Belicheck decides to run the one man law firm, Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis into the ground when the Pats get an early lead.

Atlanta -3 @ St.Louis

Holy cow! I don't gamble, but if I did I would kill this game. This is my lock of the week since I am also releasing my lock of the year later on...Atlanta, Atlanta, Atlanta. St.Louis is 4-1 at home yes I know that...they have also not played anyone with a record above .500 in those games. St.Louis is also 6-1-1 vs the number this year. It looks like Vegas has figured them out. If you factor in that the home field advantage is usually good for 3 points for odds-makers, that means they think Rams and Falcons is an even bet. WOW! The Rams have not won on the road despite playing at Oakland, Detroit, Tampa Bay and San Francisco. I don't think any of these teams will be making a long playoff run, in fact I don't think any of them even make the playoffs! Atlanta on the other hand has two losses, @ Philly and in OT @ Pittsburgh. They have beaten all common opponents as well as Baltimore and New Orleans. Atlanta will run the Rams out of the stadium. Give the points, take the Falcons.

I'm only giving three picks this week since it is my first blog for this site, but they are all huge plays. The third is the Lock of the year. Baltimore +10 over Carolina.
Its a big number for the NFL anytime it is double digits. This number is normally scary as it is a huge push possibility...BUT, it isn't a push possibility as the Ravens will be up by 21-28 points most of this game. Why? Two main reasons. Baltimore and Carolina! Baltimore is coming off a bye, good teams win off of byes, and Baltimore is a great team. Carolina is starting Tony Pike. He has lived his entire 10 game NFL career in the shadow of Jimmy Claussen and Matt Moore...that should tell you something. He managed to beat out Hunter Cantwell for the clipboard holding position only because he was a draftee this past April. Where is Cantwell now by the way? Baltimore. DeAngelo Williams is done for the year, Stewart is banged up and Carolina has only one WR that has played a snap before this season on its active list unless Devin Thomas is activated, but even he was cut by the receiver needy Redskins earlier this season.
Its a disaster waiting to happen in Charlotte this week. Take the Ravens for 5 stars.

Paul Craft

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