Sunday, August 22, 2010

Don't Believe Everything You Hear

I sat down and watched the ESPN Fantasy Football Special this past Wednesday evening. Here is a list of incredible predictions that ESPN made for this upcoming season.

1. "Brett Favre will not repeat the numbers he put up last year". (Boy that was a bold prediction from the guys there in the studio) 33 td's and 7 int's, those are ridiculous numbers...Brett was playing like Tim Tebow in college last year. It doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure out that he's gonna throw more than 10 int's this season if he is healthy enough to stay out there. The real question is how many more will he throw. I told a friend of mine today that I think he will throw between 16-21 int's if he plays a full slate of games. I do think he will throw alot of td's as well...I mean we are talking Brett Favre here...the guy is a stat machine and a blast to watch play. He makes those plays that you actually see on the Madden football game...roll out, heave it deep and the ball somehow goes through two players into the WR's hands....Touchdown!!! ya know the plays where your friend (and opponent) spends the whole extra point and ensuing kickoff telling you how that that's not real football....while you think to yourself, you idiot, this is a computer game and I have Brett Farve, what did you think was gonna to happen?! Now, How does this affect your fantasy drafts this year? Well, if you don't have negative settings draft away and enjoy the fruits. If you do have negative settings you need to take the increase of int's into account. No matter the settings in your league you must have another QB on your team capable of taking your team into the playoffs that will give you a chance to win. Someone like a Kyle Orton comes to mind. Not sexy...well the mustache is kinda sexy...I am alittle jealous cause the only hairs I can seem to grow these days come out of my nose. Others to consider, C.Palmer, M.Stafford, J.Campbell, Jay Cutler.

2. ESPN's next bold statement was that, "If you have one of the top 6-7 QB's don't worry about drafting a backup QB". Let me get this straight guru's you want me to draft Matt Schaub who in every season except last year has went down so consistently Houston scheduled backup QB bobble-head day somewhere close to mid-season? What about if you have Tony Romo? Is ESPN telling me that Tony is an must start every week? Let's just say you went crazy and drafted Carson Palmer in the 10th-11th round of a 10 man draft or maybe around the 7th round in a 12 man draft...You have Carson facing any number of teams (Carolina, Tampa, Cleveland, Rams, Detroit..etc) and you have Tony on the road at the Vikings, Jets, Baltimore, Cincinnati...ESPN is telling me they wouldn't grab Carson and start him over Tony...of course they would because matchups trump the big name player at least 75% of the time. I am not gonna sit Peyton Manning in this instance, but I also have never seen him have the implodes that we have all seen Tony have. So the lesson here, get a backup QB no matter who you have as your main guy in any size league. I think ESPN's original reasoning was good because they are probably considering in a 10 man format you can go to the wire and get a Jason Campbell type of player and start him during your stud's bye week, but the thing is...most good fantasy players aren't playing in solely 10 man leagues and the one's that I know of that are...still backup their QB's cause's a passing league and everyone knows it.

I will give ESPN some cred...they did agree with me that D.McNabb would go all Obama on Washington, D.C. this fall. (meaning that he will come in like New Coke, but when people get a taste of it ...well, ya know). If you are too young to get the New Coke reference, substiture Windows Vista in there and it will work all the same.

3. The last and probably most ridiculous thing ESPN's panel said during the special was to draft alot of running backs early and throughout your draft. One guy said to take as many as possible knowing that a few of them will work out and get you to the promise land. This had me going all Joe Pesci studdering to myself ok ok ok ok k k k ....Have these clowns actually done any 2010 drafts...the top tier of WR's go so quickly and soon after that the next level of guys start coming off the board as well and are probably gone by the end of the 3rd may get TO or Ocho-cinco in the 4th if you are lucky, but you are probably looking at a P.Garcon or Donald Driver type as one your WR 1-2 punch while someone like me will be sitting there with a top 6-7 QB, a top 12 rb and a top 5 WR. RB on the other hand is deep as it's ever been. If you cannot get one of the top 5 RB's is there really that much difference in the next 10 running backs?...who knows if Ryan Grant, DeAngelo Williams, Shonn Greene, Ryan Matthews, or even Joseph Addai who is falling like a rock this year are going to have any difference at all in their final pt totals. There are so many splits out there this year (unlike 5-6 years ago when it was all features and handcuffs) you can, and you better draft 1 good RB along with top WR and QB in the first 3 rounds or you aren't gettting any of the top players at those positions. How can we get in these expert's leagues? Don't get me wrong, I watch espn more than my kids, but I do get tired of the tabloid mess and the obvious fantasy advice...breaking news...draft Chris Johnson...he is good.

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