Monday, January 9, 2017

Early Mock Rd 2

Round 2 2017 mock draft
(commentary will be in [ ] below each pick and manager note)

1. Bolt- A.J. Green - WR

Green played 10 games this season before suffering a season ending injury. Green was on his way to a great fantasy season and was averaging 10 targets a game. There's no signs that point to Green not being fully recovered by the start of the season. If all goes as planned, Green will be a borderline top 10 fantasy performer  and a solid pick at #13.
[I like this pick a lot.  With a relatively young QB and no change of coaching staff/philosophy coming AJ is a solid WR 1]

2. DC - Rob Gronkowski - Since this is pretend, I'm going to pretend that he is back 100% healthy, which makes him a money pick who can never seem to be taken high enough to match his production. And I hate picking Patriots.
[I am not buying this pick.  No way DC picks a Patriot this high! And from a serious stand point the injuries are taking their toll on Gronk and his fantasy value.  With the new back thing being reported as a Disc issue he may have his highlights, but I doubt he'll ever play a 16 game slate again in his career so he won't be on any of my teams because I will not pay what it would take to own him]

3. Ryan - Jordy Nelson WR Packers.  An absolute fantasy stud every year he has been healthy.  When healthy, he is getting you 1200+ yards and 10+ TDs.  He is Aarons go to guy, and while his long down field catches diminished in 2016, he still showed that he was a beast in the redzone.  8 of his TDs came from goal to go situations.
[not the downfield threat that he was in past years Jordy still showed he was Arod's go to guy in the red zone.  Jordy is a legit WR 1 in the most potent passing offense in the league and is a solid pick here in round 2]

4. Wayne – Todd Gurley RB Rams – He had more rushing attempts and was more involved in the passing game in his 2ndyear.  He had about 320 touches for the year but a lower yds per touch and touchdowns.  If he can return to his previous years yds per touch he could have 1800 yds and 10-12 touchdowns.  I see the new coach giving him the le’veon treatment and just feed him the ball.  He is way too talented to have another year like 2016 even with less than QB play.  Plus the O line will be taken care of in the off season.

[This is a high upside value pick here.  The Rams have no real threats on offense besides Gurley so the volume will be there.  Gurley not only dealt with a weak line as Wayne pointed out, but was hindered by weak QB play.  I think Gurley could rebound big like Melvin Gordon did this past year.  Things change quickly in a years time and no one is taking goal line touches away from Gurley.  He's still a low end RB1 is my book and worst case high end RB2.]

5. Chris "High Rollaz" – Lamar Miller RB Texans – He's the best RB available looking to put up better numbers in year 2.
[The Texans brought Miller in to give him the work load that he wanted in Miami.  You are currently seeing this in the playoffs.  Miller will get more touchdowns and fantasy points next season because Brock Osweiler will be better in his second full year as a starter.  It would not take too much of an upswing in Brock's play to vault Miller into a high first round pick closer where he was chosen in 2016.]

6. Mark H - Demarco Murray - Murray was better early than late this year, but still looked good overall.  The titans run the ball as much as any team so even with the emergence of Henry. Murray still holds 2nd round value easily.
[Early on Murray had many of us wondering to ourselves why we stopped believing in him.  He proved to fantasy owners he is a legit high end RB1 most of this season.  My only worry here is the emergence of D.Henry who has a huge yards per carry and is a beast near the stripe.  Murray will be good again next year, but could be the 1a to Henry's 1b costing him some touchdowns and lowering his point total from this year?  If you look at his looks down the stretch it may give you a glipse into his 2017 value which is more late 2nd round]

7. Wes/Show - D. Adams WR Green Bay.  This guy was flat money down the stretch ranking as a top five WR over the second half of the season.  Despite some drops Adams still loaded up on targets and had multiple scores and looked explosive doing it.  As Jordy Nelson's downfield game declines Adams role only grows larger.  I considered Dez here, but Dez does not have Rodgers chucking him the rock.      
     [Great pick! Show]


8. JR takes Mike Thomas - Saints WR.  With great size and hands Thomas was a threat to score from anywhere on the field especially in the Red Zone.  I have no fear pulling the trigger in the 2nd round.  At this rate he may be reaching the OBJ level come next year.  In this pass heavy attack Thomas has Drew Brees' trust and mine!

[JR usually does pretty good with these upside picks.  Thomas won't sneak up on anyone next year and will draw that number one corner more often than not.  It will be interesting to see how he deals with the extra attention.  He certainly has the talent and a pass heavy offense to boost his value.]

9. Mark B takes Latavius Murray and his 12 TD's this year.  Behind a massive line and Derek Carr back next year this is a good 2nd round value at RB.  [I like his value much more in this standard setting.  With multiple RB's in the mix in Oakland it really limits his ceiling.]

10. Tinner - I select Amari Cooper, WR  Raiders. When healthy he is a "premier " talent at the position. With Derek Carr in his 3rd season in the NFL, this duo is poised to put up "Huge" numbers in the future. The one thing about Amari is he just needs to stay healthy.

[My ownership of Cooper was very heavy this past year.  Amare left me with many more bad games than good.  Disappearing in games, drops and the lack of red zone looks will make me think long and hard about taking him this high next year.  Crabtree is the red zone WR for this team and when they are close they smash it in with their big RBs and dominant Oline.  Cooper has the raw talent to be the next Julio Jones, but he's got some maturing to do to get there.]

11. PC- At this stage it's either a risk or a reach. So I will go with risk. Isaiah Crowell plays on a terrible team which is risky. But he is about the only featured back left. A darn good one too.
[This is not a bad pick at all PC.  Crowell would be a fantasy commodity on a better squad.  He is a big back that can break away and also finish the tough runs.  Any consistency at all at the QB position would make Crowell much more relevant.  I wouldn't take him this early...but he wouldn't get out of round 3 in a standard with RBs flying off the board.]

12. Chris Porter - Aaron Rodgers led the league in TD's this year.  If you are going to go QB early you can't argue with Rodgers to finish off the 2nd round.
 [Nothing to add here.  At this point it's a strategy pick.]

This is the end of round 2 of our 2017 Mock Draft.  I think we will stop things here and begin again post NFL draft where rookies will change the look of the draft so we can go a little further into the draft.  I liked the notes on each pick...well done!  Until then...  
Wes "theShow"

Friday, January 6, 2017

Early NFL Mock Rd 1

Breaking down our first Mock draft of 2017 we started by excluding rookies not knowing yet where those players will be starting their NFL careers.  There are no wrong picks here so the breakdown is merely for entertainment purposes. 
Bolt started the draft by selecting Ezekiel Elliot number one overall.  Hard to argue with taking Zeke here due to mainly his consistency.  The offense revolves around Zeke.  Dak is not a polished downfield passer and that is not going to change much in 2017.  Elliot runs behind a huge line...gets volume and is rarely vultured at the stripe.  With Zeke you get consistency and in the first round you can't ask for more than that. 
DC somehow avoided picking Lev Bell even though he is a big Steeler fan.  I like his David Johnson pick here knowing now that his injury in the last game was simply a meniscus injury and did not involve any ACL or PCL tears.  David Johnson statistically is the best back in the league.  This guy jumps off the screen when watching the Cards play.  Whether it's his burst out of the backfield or his route running ability DJ is a straight up monster.  
Ryan took Leveon Bell 3rd.  The top three picks are set in stone right now as far as I am concerned and should be going into 2017.  Give me pick three and I'll take what's left and pick sooner coming back in a snake draft next year.   Bell can do it all and win you weeks and that is what you want out of this 3 down do it all back.  He stayed healthy this year which is big for his value going forward. 
Wayne took Jordan Howard at #4 thinking a bit outside of the box.  Howard was a real draft steal this past year and those of you who took him and waited for his chance looked like geniuses.  Howard runs hard and looks good at the goal line.  He can run in any weather with his powerful style and should be the bears go to guy next year.  I worry about trusting John Fox. That is the only real worry here.  That and the bears QB situation could change things for me.  You saw in LA what a bad offense can do to a solid fantasy RB looking to improve on a great rookie campaign.  I like the thinking here, but it does come with some risk.  Sometimes you have to take risks to win.
The first WR comes off the board here at pick 5 as Chris chose the big freak Julio Jones.   Julio is a dominant player and if he is on the field he is a threat to score on any play.  That and having a rejuvenated Matty Ice at QB Jones is about as safe as you can get at the WR position.  Jones only downside is he does miss games from time to time.  He does play hurt though so it's not a huge knock on his value. 
At #6 Mark Haskamp takes WR Antonio Brown. Antonio Brown is virtually unstoppable with his speed and route running skills.  He caught two more TD's (12) than he did last year on 40 less targets.  There's no slowing down this elite WR and I have no problem with him going mid round 1 even in a standard league.
At pick #7 I took Devonte Freeman and I mentioned his ferocious running style.  Every time I got to watch AFL this year this guy was just ripping through arm tackles and making moves to get him in the end zone.  Some people don't like the Tevin Coleman factor, but that doesn't bother me at all.  Coleman is going to take catches away from Freeman but he will never take that RB 1 job from him or the goal line work and in a standard league that's enough for me to take Freeman and sleep like a baby at the 7th pick. 
Pick 8 had Mark Burdette grabbing Shady McCoy.  What a year for McCoy who battled some injuries here and there to have a great season.  In a run first offense with limited QB play McCoy looked like a young man ripping off long TD runs in several games and rewarding those who took him early to late second/third round last season.  The new coach and OC will go along way to determine where I rank him in 2017.   
At #9 good ole' JR took Jay Ajayi.  I think many of us either drafted this guy or had him setting on our benches only to drop him before his run as a fantasy RB1.  Out of the gate Ajayi showed me little to think he could be a viable fantasy runner, but as he began to understand the zone blocking schemes of Adam Gase he began to run down hill and bash opponents...especially defenses that did not show gap discipline.  I am not sure this guy is elite, but I can buy this upside pick by JR which is what you are looking for at this point in the first round.  

The #10 pick - Johnny T  - Not a whole lot I can add to what Tinner wrote about Adams.  I really liked his write up and justification for Evans leaping into our first round.  Last year we saw Allen Robinson going around this spot and we saw what a let down he had which was due in large part to the quality of QB play this year in Jags land. I think this will be a popular pick next year with Evans much less likely to disappoint with a QB and team on the rise.  Again nice write up John.  That was exactly what I was looking for.
Pick #11 went to PC who grabbed Odell Beckham Jr.  OBJ set an NFL record for the most catches in his first three years in the NFL.  (he is actually tied with Jarvis Landry for that record, oddly enough)  Beckham may drive you crazy watching his sometimes non-existent stat lines, but with OBJ it only takes one quick slant and a missed tackle and his fantasy day, and yours, is made.  Possibly the most explosive player in the league I see this as a solid pick here.
Pick #12 - Rounding out our first round of our 2017 mock is Chris Porter and his what I would call safe selection of Melvin Gordon RB San Diego/possibly LA Chargers.  Gordon went from no TDs in 2015 to 12 total TDs in 13 games played in 2016. 
This pick is interesting to me...I think it could go either way.  I worry about his durability and lack of huge rushing yardage.  I also worry about many of his TD's coming from goal line opportunities.  He should be the only show in town next year so the 12 TDs should be something he can match, but i would like to see more durability and more games played before I call him a first round talent.  Chris referenced Woodhead in his write up.  I wouldn't worry about him at all.  He's a smaller back who is not built to be in a feature roll plus his durability is in question. 
Not sure there are any real winners or losers in this first round.  With an experienced array of drafters there are no picks that I really question.  The top 3 are set in stone right now mix them up however you want.  In the later part of the draft I do like the Evans pick at 10 and I like Wayne's Howard pick at four and you can't argue with Antonio Brown at 6.  Now we move to Round 2 of our 2017 Fantasy Football email draft.  Stay tuned for more coverage.
Wes "theShow"

Monday, October 3, 2016

It's All About Me


Hmmmm....Let me save you some time and tell you how this one is going to go.  Steve Young is great.  Coaches and former players say how great Steve Young is.  Steve Young tells us how great Steve Young is because after all this is what he does.  Steve has a good story of how he went from the USFL to the NFL and eventually toiled behind Joe Montana before winning his own Super Bowl.  Steve Young was a really really good QB in one of the best systems of all time, but he was also extremely overrated.  His gaudy Super Bowl numbers came against possibly worst AFC Champion of all time in that San Diego Chargers team.  This guy is just hard to root for or support because of his hall of fame ego.  Watch Steve break down QB's on television and just for kicks see if you can find a segment where he does not insert a "back when I played" statement into his analysis.  Nobody outside of die hard 49er fans care Steve.  Go ahead and tell the public how great you could have been if not sitting behind the Greatest QB of all time for those years.  You were lucky to be in that organization at the time when they were one of the leagues premier franchises or you would be lucky to get a commercial selling used cars in a small town.  So be sure to tune in Friday at 9pm because Steve Young is great...if you don't believe it just ask him.
Wes "theShow"

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

The Death of Fantasy Football

A friend of mine pours the last few drops from the pitcher of beer sitting on the table.  Here we are chillin' out at the local establishment drafting our annual fantasy football team.  Sure we play for a few bucks, but in reality we'd play for fun and have no issues with that at all because it is about something bigger than money.  It's about bragging rights...its' about me beating you...head to head, man to man, you are a chump if you think you can take me kinda action.  Well, it used to be that way...now fantasy football is becoming a way to make a living.  It's becoming non stop ads for fan duel and draft kings showing dudes wearing snap back hats and dress shirts holding giant checks like the ones seen in Happy Gilmore and Publishers Clearing House commercials.   No longer can you watch some fantasy football show on Sunday morning without getting your daily fantasy football advice.  When you listen to XM Fantasy Sports radio regardless of the program they are all sponsored by the daily sports companies that promote how "easy" it is to get your piece of the action.  In fact most of the advice now centrals around daily and not towards the game that we started playing so many years ago.  FF has become an industry dominated by professional gamblers.  Money may not be the root of all evil but it is ushering in the death of fantasy football as we know it.  I have researched the names of the guys that win these big tournaments and most of them are gamblers.  One guy getting ready for a million dollar tournament with a $5 buy in per team bragged about the 3 grand he dropped building different teams using different scenarios.  Sure, this does not guarantee that he will win, but it sorta defeats the purpose of putting in an entry to go against these gamblers.  Think about it this way...if he gets money and you don't did he beat you at "fantasy football" or did he manipulate a numbers game...a system that promotes overwhelming statistical probability over simply building a better lineup than your opponent?  In closing I am not saying don't play daily.  There are leagues out there that are harder to find that limits the number of entries.   Just don't be fooled to think that it's a fair process or in the spirit of what we know to be fantasy football.  Gotta run, a new pitcher is on the way over and the wings are coming out.

Wes Ramsey
"theShow"

Sunday, July 12, 2015

Team by Team PPR Running Back Notes

Here is some good information for you on how player movement and coaching tendencies affect PPR values.

1. New Orleans Saints -- 166. C.J. Spiller, welcome back into our good graces.
2. Detroit Lions -- 165. Offense run by ex-Saints assistant. Hello, Ameer Abdullah.
3. Oakland Raiders -- 160. Pretty heavily skewed by FB Marcel Reece's 59 targets.
4. Buffalo Bills -- 154. New OC Greg Roman's 2014 49ers ranked 31st in RB targets.
5. Chicago Bears -- 137. Marc Trestman gone. Adam Gase's Broncos ranked 23rd.
6. Kansas City Chiefs -- 136. Alex Smith + Andy Reid + Jamaal Charles = RB targets.
7. Atlanta Falcons -- 133. May be more useful for TB. Koetter throws to his backs.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers -- 132. Le'Veon Bell had 6+ targets in 12 games last year.
9. Cincinnati Bengals -- 121. Both Jeremy Hill & Giovani Bernard can catch.
10. Minnesota Vikings -- 118. A good omen for Adrian Peterson's catch total.
11. St. Louis Rams -- 116. There was a lot of Benny Cunningham (52 targets).
12. Indianapolis Colts -- 114. Frank Gore's 2014 49ers ranked 31st in RB targets.
13. Arizona Cardinals -- 111. Both Andre Ellington and David Johnson can catch.
14. San Diego Chargers -- 110. Keep in mind this was without Danny Woodhead.
15. Baltimore Ravens -- 108. May be more applicable to this year's Broncos.
15. New England Patriots -- 108. Gone is Shane Vereen, who had 77 targets. Who steps in?
17. Washington Redskins -- 104. Roy Helu (47 targets) gone. Alfred Morris had 26.
18. Philadelphia Eagles -- 102. Actually up from Chip's first year (only 82 RB targets).
18. Miami Dolphins -- 102. Offense run by Chip disciple; Exact same RB targets.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars -- 101. Now coordinated by Greg Olson, who came from OAK.
21. New York Giants -- 100. Should rise after Giants signed Shane Vereen.
21. Tennessee Titans -- 100. Dexter McCluster & Leon Washington combined for 67.
23. Denver Broncos -- 98. OC Adam Gase replaced by Gary Kubiak/Rick Dennison.
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 94. Outgoing OC Marcus Arroyo replaced by Dirk Koetter.
25. Dallas Cowboys -- 92. Will likely throw more this season, raising RB targets.
26. Green Bay Packers -- 90. Packers finished 24th in offensive plays.
26. Houston Texans -- 90. Were heavily run committed and will remain so.
28. New York Jets -- 81. May be irrelevant with Chan Gailey hired as OC.
29. Seattle Seahawks -- 74. Seahawks ranked 32nd in 2014 team pass attempts.
30. Carolina Panthers -- 68. Cam Newton is not a checkdown quarterback.
31. San Francisco 49ers -- 64. Applicable for BUF. Note: FB Bruce Miller had 25.
32. Cleveland Browns -- 48. A leap to expect big catch total for Duke Johnson.

courtesy RotoWorld

Monday, March 2, 2015

Break Time...

We are going to take a little break until the NFL draft gets a bit closer then we will begin to break that down.  We have a history of giving you insight on the new kids coming into the league that has paid off during the fantasy football season...so stay tuned.  While everyone talks Winston and Mariota we'll be looking at that 5th round running back that could boost your team to a championship.  This summer we will do our yearly "New Faces In New Places" article.  In this piece we let you in on what we know about how new players on new teams will increase or decrease their fantasy value.  

Many of your are gearing up for Fantasy Baseball.  I may post a mock draft here soon or a link to a trusted source...but that will likely be the only coverage we give to the sport this season unless we have someone step forward wanting to do some baseball writing.  At this point I just don't have the time or resources to get that done.  Until next time...
Wes

Sunday, December 7, 2014

Fantasy Playoffs - Week 1



Yeah it's playoff time peeps and if you are an avid fantasy football player chances are you are in the playoffs in some league some where.  If you are in a good league most of the good players are on rosters so in today's article let's look at some players who may be on your wire right now or on your bench that you could plug in and play today in your first round match up or snag off the wire if you have a bye this week.

Carlos Hyde RB Niners - Hyde is the red zone guy for the niners more often than not.  He's a good play this week vs a miserable Oakland team especially in TD heavy leagues.  In keepers Gore is most likely history after this year so Hyde is not a bad keeper going into next season.

Stedman Bailey WR Rams - With 5 catches in the 1st quarter alone last week to go with 100 yards Stedman has gone from being an after thought in the Rams offense to being the number one WR.  I like Bailey in keepers as well.  He has the best hands on the team at WR.

Giovani Bernard RB Bengals won't be found on any waivers wires, but he has been missing in action for weeks now as far as fantasy goes.  I look for Gio to be back in black today and running wild vs the Steelers for at least one score.  Start him.

Ryan Tannehill QB Dolphins - The Dolphins signal caller is a sneaky good start this week.  I know I am rolling with him in more than one league.

Teddy Bridgewater QB Vikings - I am not going to start Teddy over any established NFL talents, but Teddy is at home with a tasty match up vs the Jets this week and I must say I am intrigued and bloody tempted to start him in at least one league where I have a bad match up at QB.

Reggie Bush RB Lions has been all but forgotten due to injuries and the emergence of Theo Riddick catching the football, but how easy does this home match up look vs the Tbay Bucs this week?  I like Reggie to have a nice week.  He's a gutsy play in the flex.

Good luck gentlemen,
Wes "theShow" Ramsey